An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland
Purpose – The purpose of this article is to analyse the effects of a declining birth rate and an increasing old age-population ratio on Ireland’s economic output. Design-Methodology/Approach – This paper utilises data on the birth rate, old-age population ratio, economic output and labour effort of the Irish economy to estimate a vector-autoregressive model. The results of this model are then analysed to test for the presence of Granger causality among these variables. In doing so it is possible to assess whether there are statistically significant causal relationships existing among these factors. Subsequently, impulse response functions are derived from this model in order to assess the magnitude of the causal relationships. Findings - The results suggest that declining fertility rates and increases in the old-age dependency ratio have a significant impact on labour effort and economic output. Labour effort is also found to explain variation in the fertility rate and economic output. Economic output is found to effect labour effort and the fertility rate. Social Implications – The results derived in this paper raise interesting policy implications. It is evident that Ireland’s declining birth rate and increasing old-age population ratio are creating a demographic situation which will have implications for future economic growth. Policies need to be put in place to mitigate the negative effects these factors will have on Irish growth. Originality/Value – This paper adopts modern econometric techniques to assess the causal relationships which exist between the demographic and economic factors considered. These have not previously been applied to the Irish situation. In doing this, this paper provides an important insight into the changing dynamics of the Irish economy.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in International Journal of Social Economics 3.39(2012): pp. 221-237|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Wang, P. & Yip, C.K. & Scotese, C.A., 1991.
"Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence,"
6-91-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K & Scotese, Carol A, 1994. "Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 255-66, May.
- Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993.
"Vector Autoregressions and Causality,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
- Zapata, Hector O. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1996.
"Monte Carlo Evidence On Cointegration And Causation,"
31690, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
- Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-98, May.
- David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Dora M. Iakova & Dennis P. J. Botman, 2007. "Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 07/247, International Monetary Fund.
- Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.
- Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007.
"The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
- Alexia Prskawetz & Thomas Kögel & Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2009. "The Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth: An Application of Probabilistic Forecasting in India," Working Papers 0403, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003.
"Longevity and Life-cycle Savings,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09.
- George Hondroyiannis, 2009.
"Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty:An Assessment Using European Panel Data,"
96, Bank of Greece.
- George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
- Ermisch, John F, 1989. "Purchased Child Care, Optimal Family Size and Mother's Employment: Theory and Econometric Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 79-102.
- Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, June.
- Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, .
"Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Doyle Eleanor, 2001. "Export-Output Causality and the Role of Exports in Irish Growth: 1950-1997," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 31-54.
- Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
- Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002.
"A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
- Ahn, N. & Mira, P., 1999. "A Note on the Changing Relationship Between Fertility and Female Employment Rates in Developed Countries," Papers 9903, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Winegarden, C R & Wheeler, Mark, 1992. "The Role of Economic Growth in the Fertility Transition in Western Europe: Econometric Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 421-35, November.
- Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 693-696.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966-2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 393-407, December.
- repec:hal:journl:hal-00287137 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kelley, Allen C & Schmidt, Robert M, 1996. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-86, November.
- Abul M. M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1999. "Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction mode," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 463-487.
- Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.