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Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

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  • Gözgör, Giray
  • Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin
  • Rangazas, Peter

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of the effect of uncertainty on fertility. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We use a new measure of uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index, and focus on data from 126 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty shocks decrease the fertility rate. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Gözgör, Giray & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Rangazas, Peter, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility," GLO Discussion Paper Series 360, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:360
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    Cited by:

    1. Giray Gozgor, 2020. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in Rising Populism in the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 8499, CESifo.
    2. Cem Işık & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357, December.
    3. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Nurudeen Abu & Tayo P. Ogundunmade, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in G7 countries: evidence of long-range dependence and cointegration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 541-556, May.
    4. Giray Gozgor, 2022. "The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 229-246, January.
    5. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh Dinh Su, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and demand for international tourism: An empirical study," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1415-1430, December.
    6. Aparajita Dasgupta & Anahita Karandikar & Devvrat Raghav, 2022. "Road Access, Fertility and Child Health in Rural India," Working Papers 86, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    7. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Dirk Konietzka & Philippe Lambert & Vincent Jerald Ramos, 2023. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Kreyenfeld, Michaela & Konietzka, Dirk & Lambert, Philippe & Ramos, Vincent Jerald, 2022. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2022023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    9. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 16500, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Uncertainty; WUI Index; Precautionary Saving; Business Cycle; Panel Data Estimation Techniques;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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