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Urbanization, long-run growth, and the demographic transition

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  • Adams, Jonathan J.

Abstract

Advanced economies undergo three transitions during their development: (1) transition from a rural to an urban economy, (2) transition from low-income growth to high-income growth, (3) transition from high fertility and mortality rates to low modern levels. The timings of these transitions are correlated in the historical development of most advanced economies. I consider a nonlinear model of endogenous long-run economic and demographic change, in which child quantity-quality substitution is driven by declining child mortality. Because the model captures the interactions between all three transitions, it is able to explain three additional empirical patterns: a declining urban-rural wage gap, a declining rural-urban family size ratio, and most surprisingly, that early urbanization slows development. This third prediction distinguishes the model from other theories of long-run growth, and I document evidence for it in cross-country data.

Suggested Citation

  • Adams, Jonathan J., 2022. "Urbanization, long-run growth, and the demographic transition," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(1), pages 31-77, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:demeco:v:88:y:2022:i:1:p:31-77_2
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 365-414, September.
    2. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2016. "Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Brée, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    4. Chi Pui Ho, 2024. "Towards a More Complete Theory of Structural Transformation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 25(1), pages 289-326, May.
    5. Romualdas Ginevicius & Laima Okuneviciute Neverauskiene & Roman Trishch & Daiva Andriusaitiene & Viktorija Stasytyte, 2025. "Assessment of Demographic Profile of European Union Countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 27(70), pages 1109-1109, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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