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The demographic transition: causes and consequences

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  • Oded Galor

    (Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA)

Abstract

This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:1-28
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-011-0062-7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Gender gap; Human capital; Fertility; Mortality; Unified growth theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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