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Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization

Author

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  • Thomas Baudin

    (Université de Lille, Lille Economie Management, UMR 9221 and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Robert Stelter

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and University of Rostock)

Abstract

We propose a unified model of economic growth where people decide not only about fertility and education but also whether or not to migrate to the city or alternatively to the countryside. Using the simulated method of moments and an original set of Danish data, we calibrate our model to evaluate the relative contributions of the rural exodus and mortality reductions to economic growth and the fertility transition. We find, in line with Galor (2005), that the reduction of infant mortality has not been a major driver of the Danish economic takeoff while the rural exodus, complementing technological progress, has been a workhorse of the economic and demographic revolution of Denmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2016. "Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2016020
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    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2016020.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Bastien Chabé-Ferret & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2018. "Economics Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom," Working Papers ECARES 2018-19, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Luca Pensieroso & Alessandro Sommacal, 2019. "Agriculture to Industry: the End of Intergenerational Coresidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 87-102, October.
    3. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Brée, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    4. Ana Grdoviæ Gnip, 2023. "The determinants of regional migration in Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 41(2), pages 427-448.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Industrialization; Rural exodus; Mortality differentials; Fertility differentials;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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