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Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization

Author

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  • Thomas Baudin

    () (Université de Lille, Lille Economie Management, UMR 9221 and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Robert Stelter

    () (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and University of Rostock)

Abstract

We propose a unified model of economic growth where people decide not only about fertility and education but also whether or not to migrate to the city or alternatively to the countryside. Using the simulated method of moments and an original set of Danish data, we calibrate our model to evaluate the relative contributions of the rural exodus and mortality reductions to economic growth and the fertility transition. We find, in line with Galor (2005), that the reduction of infant mortality has not been a major driver of the Danish economic takeoff while the rural exodus, complementing technological progress, has been a workhorse of the economic and demographic revolution of Denmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2016. "Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2016020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2016020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Industrialization; Rural exodus; Mortality differentials; Fertility differentials;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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