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The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development

  • Matteo Cervellati

    ()

  • Uwe Sunde

    ()

We present a theory of the economic and demographic transition where adult longevity, child mortality, fertility and the education composition of the population are jointly determined. The model allows for an investigation of the determinants of underdevelopment traps as well as of the mechanism that leads to an endogenous exit out of the trap. We also study the different roles of exogenous reductions in mortality and of permanent differences in extrinsic mortality for comparative development. The theory delivers a series of novel predictions which are illustrated with a simple dynamic simulation of the model. These predictions are shown to be consistent with evidence using both time series data and crosscountry panel data.

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File URL: http://www1.vwa.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/dp2008/DP-21-Ce.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 with number 2008-21.

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Length: 67 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2008:2008-21
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