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Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society

  • de la Croix, David

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Lindh, Thomas


    (Institute for Futures Studies)

  • Malmberg, Bo


    (Institute for Futures Studies)

Aging of the population will affect the growth path of all countries. To assess the historical and future importance of this claim we use two popular approaches and evaluate their merits and disadvantages by confronting them to Swedish data. We first simulate an endogenous growth model with human capital linking demographic changes and income growth. Rising longevity increases the incentive to get education, which in turn has ever-lasting effects on growth through a human capital externality. Secondly, we consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. Comparing the two approaches, encompassing tests show that each of them contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.

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Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2006:9.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2006_009
Note: ISSN 1652-120X; ISBN 13: 978-91-89655-92-8; ISBN 10: 91-89655-92-3
Contact details of provider: Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08-402 12 00
Fax: 08-24 50 14
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  1. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DE LA CROIX, David & PEETERS, Dominique, 2005. "Early literacy achievements, population density and the transition to modern growth," CORE Discussion Papers 2005026, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
  3. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1999. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 255-263, November.
  4. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1998. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," Working Papers 98-1, Brown University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Aug 1998.
  5. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, 2006. "Vintage Capital," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/8, European University Institute.
  6. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & David DE LA CROIX & Omar LICANDRO, 2002. "Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Growth," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/11, European University Institute.
  7. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1989. "Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 585-588.
  8. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
  9. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June.
  10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
  11. David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2000. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  14. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  15. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  16. Deutsch, Melinda & Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "The combination of forecasts using changing weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 47-57, June.
  17. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2002. "Longevity and Life Cycle Savings," NBER Working Papers 8808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Raouf Boucekkine & Omar Licandro & Christopher Paul, . "Differential-Difference Equations in Economics: On the Numerical Solution of Vintage Capital Growth Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _036, Society for Computational Economics.
  19. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05.
  20. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  21. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, 06.
  22. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 1999. "Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 431-449.
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