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Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society

Author

Listed:
  • de la Croix, David

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Lindh, Thomas

    (Institute for Futures Studies)

  • Malmberg, Bo

    (Institute for Futures Studies)

Abstract

Aging of the population will affect the growth path of all countries. To assess the historical and future importance of this claim we use two popular approaches and evaluate their merits and disadvantages by confronting them to Swedish data. We first simulate an endogenous growth model with human capital linking demographic changes and income growth. Rising longevity increases the incentive to get education, which in turn has ever-lasting effects on growth through a human capital externality. Secondly, we consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. Comparing the two approaches, encompassing tests show that each of them contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • de la Croix, David & Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2006. "Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society," Arbetsrapport 2006:9, Institute for Futures Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2006_009
    Note: ISSN 1652-120X; ISBN 13: 978-91-89655-92-8; ISBN 10: 91-89655-92-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2007. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 553-567.
    3. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2007. "Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2015. "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 189-225, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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