IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

How the West "Invented" Fertility Restriction

  • Nico Voigtl?nder
  • Hans-Joachim Voth

We analyze the emergence of the first socioeconomic institution in history limiting fertility: west of a line from St. Petersburg to Trieste, the European Marriage Pattern (EMP) reduced childbirths by approximately one-third between the fourteenth and eighteenth century. To explain the rise of EMP we build a two-sector model of agricultural production?grain and livestock. Women have a comparative advantage in animal husbandry. After the Black Death in 1348?1350, land abundance triggered a shift toward the pastoral sector. This improved female employment prospects, leading to later marriages. Using detailed data from England, we provide strong evidence for our mechanism.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.103.6.2227
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/oct2013/20110925_data.zip
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/oct2013/20110925_app.pdf
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/ds/oct2013/20110925_ds.zip
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 103 (2013)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 2227-64

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:6:p:2227-64
Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.6.2227
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: https://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. -, 2009. "Pueblos indígenas = Indigenous people," Observatorio Demográfico de América Latina / Demographic Observatory of Latin America 6, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  2. Jizhen Li & Xin Pu, 2009. "Technology Evolution in China's Color TV Industry," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4-5), pages 479-497.
  3. Doepke, Matthias & Hazan, Moshe & Maoz, Yishay D., 2007. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3253, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Oecd, 2009. "DAC Peer Review of Austria," OECD Journal on Development, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 109-219.
  5. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 804, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Dietrich Vollrath, 2011. "The agricultural basis of comparative development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 343-370, December.
  8. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2008. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Working Papers 14266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Third Birth in Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(4), pages 235-75, December.
  10. anonymous, 2009. "Focus on Authors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 1002-1006, 09-10.
  11. Foreman-Peck, James, 2009. "The Western European Marriage Pattern and Economic Development," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner, 2010. "From Shame to Game in One Hundred Years: An Economic Model of the Rise in Premarital Sex and its De-Stigmatization," NBER Working Papers 15677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
  14. John C. Brown & Timothy W. Guinnane, 2001. "The Fertility Transition in Bavaria," Working Papers 821, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  15. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2005. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 183-207, March.
  16. Baldauf, Markus & Santos Silva, Joao M C, 2009. "On the use of robust regression in econometrics," Economics Discussion Papers 3543, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  17. Arthur P. Wolf, 2001. "Is There Evidence of Birth Control in Late Imperial China?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 133-154.
  18. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
  19. Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working-Class in England, 1209-2004," Working Papers 539, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  20. Jones, Larry & Schoonbroodt, Alice, 2007. "Baby busts and baby booms: the response of fertility to shocks in dynastic models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0706, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  21. Nico Voigtländer & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2006. "Why England? Demographic factors, structural change and physical capital accumulation during the Industrial Revolution," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_003, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  22. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1998. "Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Tommy Murphy, 2015. "Old habits die hard (sometimes)," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-222, June.
  25. Jan Luiten Van Zanden, 2002. "The ‘revolt of the early modernists’ and the ‘first modern economy’: an assessment," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 55(4), pages 619-641, November.
  26. E. Abord de Chatillon & J.-Y. Duyck & M.A. Vilette, 2009. "Le temps du management, entre plaisir et usure," Post-Print halshs-01073130, HAL.
  27. Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1994. "Was Prometheus unbound by chance? Risk, diversification and growth," Economics Working Papers 98, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  28. ., 2009. "Justice: The Inner Core of Governance," Chapters, in: An Islamic Perspective on Governance, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  29. Alberto Alesina & Paola Giuliano & Nathan Nunn, 2013. "On the Origins of Gender Roles: Women and the Plough," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(2), pages 469-530.
  30. Salvatore, Ricardo D., 2004. "Stature decline and recovery in a food-rich export economy: Argentina 1900-1934," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 233-255, July.
  31. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2011. "The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence From A Historical Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(2), pages 593-650.
  32. Kruschwitz, Lutz, 2009. "Zum Problem der Anschlussverzinsung," Discussion Papers 2009/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  33. anonymous, 2009. "Focus on Authors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 609-613, 05-06.
  34. Tommy E. Murphy, 2010. "Old Habits Die Hard (Sometimes) Can département heterogeneity tell us something about the French fertility decline??," Working Papers 364, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  35. Joachim Voth & Nico Voigtländer, 2009. "Malthusian dynamism and the rise of Europe: Make war, not love," Economics Working Papers 1185, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  36. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  37. ., 2009. "Spontaneous Order in Decentralized Firms," Chapters, in: Employees and Entrepreneurship, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  38. Tine De Moor & Jan Luiten Van Zanden, 2010. "Girl power: the European marriage pattern and labour markets in the North Sea region in the late medieval and early modern period -super-1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 63(1), pages 1-33, 02.
  39. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
  40. Greif, Avner, 1998. "Historical and Comparative Institutional Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 80-84, May.
  41. Pissarides,, 2009. "Labour Market Adjustment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521106061, Junio.
  42. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "From Malthus to Solow: How did the Malthusian economy really evolve?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 68-93, March.
  43. Nicolini, Esteban A., 2007. "Was Malthus right? A VAR analysis of economic and demographic interactions in pre-industrial England," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 99-121, April.
  44. Editors, 2009. "Moral Hazard of the Russian Peasant," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages BackCover-B, 04.
  45. Oecd, 2009. "DAC Peer Review of Australia," OECD Journal on Development, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 147-260.
  46. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2010. "Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models," NBER Working Papers 16596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Gregory Clark, 2007. "Introduction to A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World," Introductory Chapters, in: A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World Princeton University Press.
  48. Voigtländer, Nico & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2009. "The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 7275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. anonymous, 2009. "Focus on Authors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 397-401, 03-04.
  50. Greif, Avner & Iyigun, Murat & Sasson, Diego, 2011. "Risk, Institutions and Growth: Why England and Not China?," IZA Discussion Papers 5598, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  51. repec:aei:rpbook:24858 is not listed on IDEAS
  52. Michael Anderson & Ronald Lee, 2002. "Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 195-220.
  53. Jack A. Goldstone, 2007. "Jack Goldstone on Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 8(3), pages 207-225, July.
  54. ., 2009. "Indigenous military sctors in the Persian Gulf," Chapters, in: The Militarization of the Persian Gulf, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  55. anonymous, 2009. "Focus on Authors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(6), pages 1164-1166, 11-12.
  56. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner, 2010. "Social Change: The Sexual Revolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 893-923, November.
  57. anonymous, 2009. "Focus on Authors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 802-806, 07-08.
  58. Robert C. Allen, 2009. "Agricultural productivity and rural incomes in England and the Yangtze Delta, c.1620-c.1820 -super-1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 62(3), pages 525-550, 08.
  59. George B. Roberts, Chairman, Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1960. "Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ60-2, September.
  60. Broadberry, Stephen N & Gupta, Bishnupriya, 2005. "The Early Modern Great Divergence: Wages, Prices and Economic Development in Europe and Asia, 1500-1800," CEPR Discussion Papers 4947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. anonymous, 2009. "Focus on Authors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 193-197, 01-02.
  62. Allen, Robert C., 1988. "The growth of labor productivity in early modern English agriculture," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 117-146, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

  1. How the West "Invented" Fertility Restriction (AER 2013) in ReplicationWiki

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:6:p:2227-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros)

or (Michael P. Albert)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.