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Urbanization, Long-Run Growth, and the Demographic Transition

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  • Jonathan J Adams

    (Department of Economics, University of Florida)

Abstract

Advanced economies undergo three transitions during their development: 1. They transition from a rural to an urban economy. 2. They transition from low income growth to high income growth. 3. Their demographics transition from initially high fertility and mortality rates to low modern levels. The timings of these transitions are correlated in the historical development of most advanced economies. I unify complementary theories of the transitions into a nonlinear model of endogenous long run economic and demographic change. The model reproduces the timing and magnitude of the transitions. Because the model captures the interactions between all three transitions, it is able to explain three additional empirical patterns: a declining urban-rural wage gap, a declining rural-urban family size ratio, and most surprisingly, that early urbanization slows development. This third prediction distinguishes the model from other theories of long-run growth, so I test and confirm it in cross-country data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan J Adams, 2017. "Urbanization, Long-Run Growth, and the Demographic Transition," Working Papers 001001, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ufl:wpaper:001001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Bree, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    3. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2016. "Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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