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Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks

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  • Hailemariam, Abebe

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of national income on the total fertility rate (children born per woman). We estimate the effects on fertility of shocks to national per capita income using plausibly exogenous variations in oil price shock as an instrument for income and using instrumental variable generalized quantile regressions (IV-GQR). Using data for a panel of 122 countries spanning the period 1965–2020, our results show that national per capita income has generally a negative and significant effect on the total fertility rate. Looking at the entire spectrum of the fertility distribution, the IV-GQR estimates exhibit considerable heterogeneity in the impact of income on fertility. The income elasticity of fertility is relatively low at the upper tail of the distribution (for countries with high fertility) compared to the value at the median.

Suggested Citation

  • Hailemariam, Abebe, 2024. "Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 31-54, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:demeco:v:90:y:2024:i:1:p:31-54_2
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhengyu Cai & John V. Winters, 2024. "Income and Fertility of Female College Graduates in the United States," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 479-498, December.
    2. Dimico, Arcangelo, 2024. "The Effect of Abortion Policies on Fertility and Human Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa," QBS Working Paper Series 2024/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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