IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bro/econwp/2019-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Casey
  • Soheil Shayegh
  • Juan Moreno-Cruz
  • Martin Bunzl
  • Oded Galor
  • Ken Caldeira

Abstract

"We examine the potential for climate change to impact fertility via adaptations in human behaviour. We start by discussing a wide range of economic channels through which climate change might impact fertility, including sectoral reallocation, the gender wage gap, longevity, and child mortality. Then, we build a quantitative model that combines standard economicdemographic theory with existing estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. In the model, increases in global temperature affect agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently. Near the equator, where many poor countries are located, climate change has a larger negative effect on agriculture. The resulting scarcity in agricultural goods acts as a force towards higher agricultural prices and wages, leading to a labor reallocation into this sector. Since agriculture makes less use of skilled labor, climate damages decrease the return to acquiring skills, inducing parents to invest less resources in the education of each child and to increase fertility. These patterns are reversed at higher latitudes, suggesting that climate change may exacerbate inequities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in poorer tropical countries. While the model only examines the role of one specific mechanism, it suggests that climate change could have an impact on fertility, indicating the need for future work on this important topic."

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Working Papers 2019-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2019-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economics.brown.edu/sites/g/files/dprerj726/files/papers/Galor%20The%20Impact%20of%20Climate%20Change%20on%20Fertility.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shoumitro Chatterjee & Tom Vogl, 2018. "Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1440-1467, June.
    2. Dylan E. McNamara & Andrew Keeler, 2013. "A coupled physical and economic model of the response of coastal real estate to climate risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 559-562, June.
    3. Shareen Joshi & T. Schultz, 2013. "Family Planning and Women’s and Children’s Health: Long-Term Consequences of an Outreach Program in Matlab, Bangladesh," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 149-180, February.
    4. Deschenes, Olivier, 2014. "Temperature, human health, and adaptation: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 606-619.
    5. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
    6. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    7. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2016. "The Evolution of Gender Gaps in Industrialized Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 405-434, October.
    8. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    9. Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
    10. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2016. "The Evolution of Gender Gaps in Industrialized Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 405-434, October.
    11. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    12. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2005. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1653-1672, December.
    13. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bosello, Francesco & Eboli, Fabio & Pierfederici, Roberta, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. An Updated CGE Point of View," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 121700, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    16. Desmet, Klaus & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "On the spatial economic impact of global warming," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-37.
    17. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2015. "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 189-225, July.
    18. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    19. M. Scott Taylor, 2009. "Innis Lecture: Environmental crises: past, present, and future," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1240-1275, November.
    20. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    21. Francesco Bosello & Robert Nicholls & Julie Richards & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2012. "Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 63-81, May.
    22. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    23. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    24. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado & Markus Poschke, 2011. "Structural Change Out of Agriculture: Labor Push versus Labor Pull," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 127-158, July.
    25. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    26. Richard Tol, 2012. "On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 97-116, September.
    27. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2014:i:2:p:939-993. is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & ?kos Valentinyi, 2013. "Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2752-2789, December.
    29. Jonathan A. Patz & Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum & Tracey Holloway & Jonathan A. Foley, 2005. "Impact of regional climate change on human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 310-317, November.
    30. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    31. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June.
    32. David Lam & Jeffrey Miron, 1996. "The effects of temperature on human fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(3), pages 291-305, August.
    33. Trevor Tombe, 2015. "The Missing Food Problem: Trade, Agriculture, and International Productivity Differences," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 226-258, July.
    34. Alan Barreca & Olivier Deschenes & Melanie Guldi, 2015. "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates," NBER Working Papers 21681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Daniel Aaronson & Fabian Lange & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2014. "Fertility Transitions along the Extensive and Intensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3701-3724, November.
    36. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    37. Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, June.
    38. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    39. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    40. Douglas Gollin & David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2014. "The Agricultural Productivity Gap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(2), pages 939-993.
    41. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2001. "The U.S. Structural Transformation and Regional Convergence: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 584-616, June.
    42. David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2013. "Selection, Agriculture, and Cross-Country Productivity Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 948-980, April.
    43. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
    44. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    45. Francesco Bosello & Fabio Eboli & Roberta Pierfederici, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, February.
    46. Nicholas Stern, 2013. "The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 838-859, September.
    47. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Nicholas Stern, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 1-37, May.
    49. M. Scott Taylor, 2009. "Innis Lecture: Environmental crises: past, present, and future," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 1240-1275, November.
    50. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    51. John Bryant, 2007. "Theories of Fertility Decline and the Evidence from Development Indicators," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 101-127, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Casey, Gregory & Fried, Stephie & Gibson, Matthew, 2021. "Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment," IZA Discussion Papers 14974, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2020. "Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(4), pages 725-750, December.
    3. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    4. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2019. "Twenty Key Questions in Environmental and Resource Economics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/328, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    5. Bretschger, Lucas, 2020. "Malthus in the light of climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan J. ADAMS, 2022. "Urbanization, Long-run Growth, and the Demographic Transition," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(1), pages 31-37, March.
    2. Jakob Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Testing unified growth theory: Technological progress and the child quantity‐quality tradeoff," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 235-275, January.
    3. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    4. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    5. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    6. Sunha Myong & JungJae Park & Junjian Yi, 2021. "Social Norms and Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2429-2466.
    7. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    8. Katharina Mühlhoff, 2022. "Darwin beats malthus: evolutionary anthropology, human capital and the demographic transition," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 575-614, September.
    9. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    10. Papagni, Erasmo, 2018. "Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 248, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    12. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "Endogenous labour supply, endogenous lifetime and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 238-259.
    13. Holger Strulik, 2017. "Contraception And Development: A Unified Growth Theory," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(2), pages 561-584, May.
    14. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Holger Strulik & Katharina Werner, 2016. "50 is the new 30—long-run trends of schooling and retirement explained by human aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 165-187, June.
    16. Strulik, Holger, 2019. "Desire And Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(7), pages 2717-2747, October.
    17. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    18. Yu Bai & Yanjun Li & Pak Hung Lam, 2023. "Quantity-quality trade-off in Northeast China during the Qing dynasty," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1657-1694, July.
    19. Jun, Bogang, 2013. "The Trade-off between Fertility and Education: Evidence from the Korean Development Path," MPRA Paper 43971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Philipp Ager & Benedikt Herz & Markus Brueckner, 2020. "Structural Change and the Fertility Transition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 806-822, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2019-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brown Economics Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.