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The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of an intervention that immediately reduces TFR by 1.0, using current Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that an immediate decline in the TFR of 1.0 will raise output per capita by approximately 13.2 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 25.4 percent at a horizon of 50 years.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Williams College in its series Center for Development Economics with number 2011-07.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wil:wilcde:2011-07
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  1. Mikhail Golosov & Larry E. Jones, 2004. "Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth," 2004 Meeting Papers 8, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Doepke, Matthias & Hazan, Moshe & Maoz, Yishay D., 2007. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3253, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Francesco Caselli, 2007. "The Marginal Product of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(2), pages 535-568, 05.
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Guenther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," PGDA Working Papers 2507, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  5. Kyung-Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Working Papers 2003-07, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  6. Richard Rogerson & Douglas Gollin, 2009. "The Greatest of All Improvements: Roads, Agriculture, and Economic Development in Africa," 2009 Meeting Papers 759, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. William D. Nordhaus & James Tobin, 1972. "Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 5, Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number nord72-1, October.
  8. Quamrul Ashraf & Ashley Lester & David Weil, 2008. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," Working Papers 2008-7, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  9. World Bank, 2005. "Where is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7505, September.
  10. David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2009. "How Relevant Is Malthus for Economic Development Today?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 255-60, May.
  11. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1995. "Population Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262181606, June.
  12. Ronald D Lee & Andrew Mason & Tim Miller, 1998. "Saving, Wealth, and Population," Working Papers 199805, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
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