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Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior

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  • Robert McNown

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  • Sameer Rajbhandary

Abstract

Cointegration methods are employed to investigate relations among total fertility, female wages, labor force participation, educational attainment, and male relative cohort size. Two long run relations among the series are found, and these are identified as a fertility and a labor supply equation. All covariates enter into these relations with significant coefficients and theoretically plausible signs. Innovation analysis shows that both fertility and female labor force participation respond to changes in relative cohort size in directions consistent with the Easterlin hypothesis. Female labor force participation responds significantly to fertility shocks, but reverse effects are insignificant. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McNown & Sameer Rajbhandary, 2003. "Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(3), pages 501-523, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:16:y:2003:i:3:p:501-523 DOI: 10.1007/s00148-003-0107-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flinn, Christopher J, 2000. "Modes of Interaction between Divorced Parents," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(3), pages 545-578, August.
    2. Del Boca, Daniela & Flinn, Christopher J, 1995. "Rationalizing Child-Support Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1241-1262.
    3. Weiss, Yoram & Willis, Robert J, 1993. "Transfers among Divorced Couples: Evidence and Interpretation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(4), pages 629-679, October.
    4. Del Boca, D. & Flinn, C.J., 1993. "Rationalizing Child Support Decisions," Working Papers 93-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    5. Daniela Del Boca & Rocio Ribero, 2003. "Visitations and Transfers After Divorce," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 187-204, September.
    6. Chiappori, Pierre-Andre, 1992. "Collective Labor Supply and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 437-467, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., pages 97-130.
    2. Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Vera Gács, 2008. "Fertility and prosperity : links between demography and economic growth," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 42, October.
    3. Macunovich, Diane J., 2011. "Re-Visiting the Easterlin Hypothesis: Marriage in the U.S. 1968-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 5886, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Marco Caliendo & Reinhard Hujer & Stephan Thomsen, 2008. "Identifying effect heterogeneity to improve the efficiency of job creation schemes in Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(9), pages 1101-1122.
    5. Liu, Tao-Xiong & Liu, Jun, 2017. "Two-child Policy, Gender Income and Fertility Choice In China," MPRA Paper 82934, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Macunovich, Diane J., 2011. "Re-Visiting the Easterlin Hypothesis: U.S. Fertility 1968-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 5885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2013. "The causal relationship between female labor supply and fertility in the USA: updated evidence via a time series multi-horizon approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, pages 109-145.
    9. Francisco Climent Diranzo & Robert Meneu Gaya, "undated". "Relaciones de equilibrio entre demografÌa y crecimiento econÛmico en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy 163, FEDEA.
    10. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38, January.
    11. repec:kap:jfamec:v:38:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10834-016-9514-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Robert McClelland & Shannon Mok, 2014. "Labor Force Participation Elasticities of Women and Secondary Earners within Married Couples: Working Paper 2014-06," Working Papers 49433, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2010. "The Effect Of House Price On Fertility: Evidence From Hong Kong," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 635-650, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; cointegration; female labor supply; J13; J21; C32;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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