IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabdpa/200712.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann
  • Söhnlein, Doris

Abstract

"This paper provides a decomposition of the projected change in the overall labour force in East and West Germany into three parts. The first, called the 'demographic component', shows the effects of fertility, mortality and a changing age structure of the population. The second effect is the migration component. This part is due to the cumulative net inflow of migrants, but includes their reproductive behaviour as well. Changes in the participation rates give the third effect, the participation rate component. The decomposition was done by comparing different labour force scenarios up to 2050. The method can easily be extended for decomposition into more than three factors. According to our results, the negative impact of the demographic factor on the labour force is very clear and is caused by the projected ageing of population to a great extend. Neither a strong increase in labour participation nor high immigration flows can stop the downward trend in labour force. Specific is that the demographic impact is even stronger for East Germany. As the age structure is almost given and increasing fertility rates only have positive effects in the very long run, the projected decline in labour force should be taken as a fact." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2007. "Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland," IAB-Discussion Paper 200712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200712
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2007/dp1207.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Ostdeutschland (einschl. Berlin-Ost)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200518, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Fuchs, Johann & Dörfler, Katrin, 2005. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2050 : Annahmen und Datengrundlage," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200525, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Tim Liao, 1989. "A Flexible Approach for the Decomposition of Rate Differences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 717-726, November.
    4. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
    6. Hank, Karsten & Kreyenfeld, Michaela & Spieß, Christa Katharina, 2004. "Kinderbetreuung und Fertilität in Deutschland," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 228-244.
    7. Bernd Fitzenberger & Reinhold Schnabel & Gaby Wunderlich, 2004. "The gender gap in labor market participation and employment: A cohort analysis for West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 83-116, February.
    8. Young Kim & Donna Strobino, 1984. "Decomposition of the difference between two rates with hierarchical factors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(3), pages 361-372, August.
    9. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
    10. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
    11. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Jan Dirk Vlasblom & Joop J. Schippers, 2004. "Increases in Female Labour Force Participation in Europe: Similarities and Differences," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 375-392, December.
    13. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2006. "Effekte alternativer Annahmen auf die prognostizierte Erwerbsbevölkerung," IAB-Discussion Paper 200619, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    14. Anna Cristina D’Addio & Marco Mira d’Ercole, 2006. "Policies, Institutions and Fertility Rates: A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(2), pages 7-45.
    15. Prithwis Gupta, 1978. "A general method of decomposing a difference between two rates into several components," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 15(1), pages 99-112, February.
    16. Robert McNown & Sameer Rajbhandary, 2003. "Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(3), pages 501-523, August.
    17. J.D. Vlasblom & J.J. Schippers, 2004. "Increases in Female Labour Force Participation in Europe: Similarities and Differences," Working Papers 04-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dieter Bogai & Franziska Hirschenauer, 2008. "Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 44-54, 08.
    2. Dieter Bogai & Franziska Hirschenauer, 2008. "Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages .44-54, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. An Liu & Inge Noback, 2011. "Determinants of regional female labour market participation in the Netherlands," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(3), pages 641-658, December.
    2. Arnstein Aassve & Bruno Arpino & Alice Goisis, 2012. "Grandparenting and mothers’ labour force participation: A comparative analysis using the Generations and Gender Survey," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(3), pages 53-84.
    3. Bick, Alexander, 2011. "The quantitative role of child care for female labor force participation and fertility," MPRA Paper 31713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Omotoso, Kehinde O. & Obembe, Olufemi B., 2016. "Does household technology influence female labour force participation in Nigeria?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 78-82.
    5. Almut Balleer & Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Jarkko Turunen, 2014. "Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1385-1415, June.
    6. Balleer, Almut & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Turunen, Jarkko, 2009. "Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis," Working Paper Series 1049, European Central Bank.
    7. Marleen Damman & Kène Henkens & Matthijs Kalmijn, 2015. "Women’s Retirement Intentions and Behavior: The Role of Childbearing and Marital Histories," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 339-363, October.
    8. Eliane El Badaoui & Eleonora Matteazzi, 2014. "To be a Mother, or not to be? Career and Wage Ladder in Italy and the UK," Working Papers hal-04141331, HAL.
    9. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," NBER Working Papers 29948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Lee, Sing Ping, 2014. "Childcare availability, fertility and female labor force participation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 71-85.
    11. Hassani Nezhad, Lena, 2020. "Female Employment and Childcare," IZA Discussion Papers 13839, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Inge Noback & Lourens Broersma & Jouke van Dijk, 2011. "Gender-specific dynamics in working hours," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1308, European Regional Science Association.
    13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe [Le coût de la basse fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 141-158, May.
    14. Amaia Altuzarra & Catalina Gálvez-Gálvez & Ana González-Flores, 2019. "Economic Development and Female Labour Force Participation: The Case of European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Charlie Karlsson & Martin Andersson & Therese Norman (ed.), 2015. "Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Economic Geography," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14395.
    16. Lalive, Rafael & Zweimüller, Josef, 2005. "Does Parental Leave Affect Fertility and Return-to-Work? Evidence from a "True Natural Experiment"," IZA Discussion Papers 1613, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Mareike Wagner, 2012. "The Impact of Social Support Networks on Maternal Employment: A Comparison of West German, East German and Migrant Mothers of Pre-School Children," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 483, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    18. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "The quantitative role of child care for female labor force participation and fertility," MPRA Paper 25474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Angela Cipollone & Carlo D'Ippoliti, 2009. "Women's Employment: Beyond Individual Characteristics vs. Contextual Factors Explanations," Working Papers CELEG 0901, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    20. Mateo-Berganza Díaz, María Mercedes & Rodríguez Chamussy, Lourdes, 2016. "Cashing in on Education: Women, Childcare, and Prosperity in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 8255.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ostdeutschland ; Westdeutschland ; Ausländer ; demografischer Wandel ; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial ; Geschlechterverteilung ; Migration ; Altersstruktur ; Prognose ; 1990-2050;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200712. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.