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Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing

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  • Giuseppe Carone

    (European Commission - DG ECFIN)

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology and results of labour force projections over the long term (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States. These projections were undertaken in order to provide the background technical inputs for the assessment of the potential economic and fiscal impact of an ageing population. The projections presented in this paper show the outcome for the labour force of extrapolating recent trends in labour market behaviour (entry and exit rates from the labour market). These base case projections reflect the working assumption of “no policy change” and are neither forecasts nor predictions in that they are not based on any assessment of more or less likely future changes in working patterns or economic conditions. To summarise the outcome of projections, the baseline scenario indicates that, notwithstanding the projected increase in the participation rates and the reduction in unemployment rates, the pace of labour force and employment growth in the EU25 will be weakly positive over the next 15 years and will turn negative over the period 2018 to 2050. These is mainly the outcome of projected declining trends for the working-age population and a shift in the age structure of the population towards older, less participating groups - a consequence of the baby-boom generation approaching retirement and the succeeding lower-birth-rate cohorts reaching working age.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0512006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:wfo:wstudy:43938 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    3. repec:wfo:wstudy:27443 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alessandra Caretta & Sara Flisi & Cecilia Frale & Michele Raitano & Simone Tedeschi, 2013. "T-DYMM : the treasury dynamic microsimulation model of the Italian pension system," Working Papers 11, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    5. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2006. "Effekte alternativer Annahmen auf die prognostizierte Erwerbsbevölkerung," IAB Discussion Paper 200619, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Cem Baslevent & Hasan Kirmanoglu, 2015. "Quality of government, egalitarianism, and welfare state attitudes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2877-2887.
    7. Zaidi, Asghar & Grech, Aaron George & Fuchs, Michael, 2006. "Pension policy in EU25 and its possible impact on elderly poverty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6225, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2007. "Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland," IAB Discussion Paper 200712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Giuseppe Carone & Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner Röger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 253, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Torben M Andersen, 2010. "Discussion comments on "Immigration: trends and macroeconomic implications"," BIS Papers chapters,in: Globalisation, labour markets and international adjustment - Essays in honour of Palle S Andersen, volume 50, pages 65-68 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Zaidi, Asghar & Makovec, Mattia & Fuchs, Michael, 2006. "Transition from work to retirement in EU25," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6229, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2014. "Impact of Education Expansion and Pension Reforms on Labour Force Participation. Participation Rate and Labour Force Projections until 2030," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(6), pages 411-426, June.
    13. Jürgen Janger & Johann Scharler & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2006. "The Potential Growth Prospects of the Austrian Economy — Methods and Determinants," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 24-52.
    14. Cem Baslevent & Hasan Kirmanoglu, 2015. "A Multilevel Analysis of Individuals' Attitudes Toward Welfare State Responsibilities," Working Papers 941, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2015.
    15. Karsten Wasiluk, 2014. "Technology Adoption and Demographic Change," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    16. Grech, Aaron George, 2007. "Pension policy in EU25 and its impact on pension benefits," MPRA Paper 33669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nick Adnett & Stephen Hardy, 2007. "The peculiar case of age discrimination: Americanising the European social model?," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 29-41, February.
    18. Christine Mayrhuber & Gerhard Rünstler & Thomas Url & Werner Eichhorst & Michael J. Kendzia & Maarten Gerard & Connie Nielsen, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU. Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43938, january-d.
    19. Michael Fuchs & Mattia Makovec & Asghar Zaidi, 2006. "Transition from Work to Retirement in EU25," CASE Papers case112, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    20. Francesco D'Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2010. "Immigration and Occupations in Europe," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1026, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    21. Almut Balleer & Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Jarkko Turunen, 2014. "Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1385-1415, June.
    22. Serguey Ivanov, 2009. "Demographic and economic factors of labour supply: Long-term projections and policy options for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 7(1), pages 83-122.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour force projections; population projections; cohort method; ageing population; dependency ratios;

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General

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