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Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing

  • Giuseppe Carone

    (European Commission - DG ECFIN)

This paper presents the methodology and results of labour force projections over the long term (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States. These projections were undertaken in order to provide the background technical inputs for the assessment of the potential economic and fiscal impact of an ageing population. The projections presented in this paper show the outcome for the labour force of extrapolating recent trends in labour market behaviour (entry and exit rates from the labour market). These base case projections reflect the working assumption of “no policy change” and are neither forecasts nor predictions in that they are not based on any assessment of more or less likely future changes in working patterns or economic conditions. To summarise the outcome of projections, the baseline scenario indicates that, notwithstanding the projected increase in the participation rates and the reduction in unemployment rates, the pace of labour force and employment growth in the EU25 will be weakly positive over the next 15 years and will turn negative over the period 2018 to 2050. These is mainly the outcome of projected declining trends for the working-age population and a shift in the age structure of the population towards older, less participating groups - a consequence of the baby-boom generation approaching retirement and the succeeding lower-birth-rate cohorts reaching working age.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Labor and Demography with number 0512006.

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Length: 180 pages
Date of creation: 09 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0512006
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 180
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  1. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2005. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications, Introduction and Summary," NBER Working Papers 11290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
  3. Romain Duval, 2003. "The Retirement Effects of Old-Age Pension and Early Retirement Schemes in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 370, OECD Publishing.
  4. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
  5. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2005. "Fiscal Implications of Pension Reforms in Italy," CEIS Research Paper 67, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  6. Peter Scherer, 2002. "Age of Withdrawal from the Labour Force in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 49, OECD Publishing.
  7. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Publishing.
  8. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
  9. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Labor and Demography 0506001, EconWPA.
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