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Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries


  • Jean-Marc Burniaux
  • Romain Duval
  • Florence Jaumotte


In the face of the substantial ageing of population expected to occur in OECD countries over coming decades, policies that boost labour-force participation attract considerable interest. There remain large cross-country divergences in participation rates that are largely accounted for by differences in participation of specific groups, in particular prime-age women, older workers and also youth. This suggests that policies targeting these groups could have important effects. The aim of this paper is to examine whether the potential impact of several policy reforms is able to attenuate or to offset the adverse trend in aggregate participation rates that would otherwise occur because of ageing population. It uses a simple dynamic modelling framework that generates longer-term projections of participation rates and labour supplies in OECD countries and alternative scenarios of policy reforms. The main outcome of this analysis is that the combined effect of possible reforms targeting ... Faire face au vieillissement : Une approche dynamique pour mesurer l'impact d'alternatives politiques sur l'offre future de travail dans les pays de l'OCDE Les pays de l’OCDE sont confrontés à un vieillissement important de leur population au cours des décades à venir et ceci explique le regain d’intérêt considérable pour les politiques susceptibles de stimuler la participation au marché du travail. Il subsiste des différences importantes de participation entre les pays de l’OCDE qui s’expliquent en grande partie par des différences de participation de groupes spécifiques, en particulier les femmes dans la force de l’âge, les travailleurs âgés et les jeunes. Ces différences suggèrent qu’il reste une marge de manoeuvre importante pour des réformes de politique économique visant ces groupes. Le but de ce papier est d’examiner si l’impact potentiel d’un certain nombre de réformes est susceptible d’atténuer, voire de compenser, la tendance future à la diminution des taux de participation agrégés telle qu’elle résulterait du vieillissement de la population. Cette analyse utilise un modèle dynamique simple qui génère des prévisions à long ...

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:371-en
    DOI: 10.1787/224538175006

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    Cited by:

    1. Edwin van Gameren, 2008. "Labor Force Participation of Mexican Elderly: The Importance of Health," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 23(1), pages 89-127.
    2. Balleer, Almut & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Turunen, Jarkko, 2009. "Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis," Working Paper Series 1049, European Central Bank.
    3. Martin O'BRIEN, 2010. "Older male labour force participation in OECD countries: Pension reform and “the reserve army of labour”," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 149(3), pages 239-259, September.
    4. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Lothar Funk, 2004. "Employment Opportunities for Older Workers: A Comparison of Selected OECD Countries," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(2), pages 22-33, 07.
    6. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jürgen Janger & Johann Scharler & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2006. "The Potential Growth Prospects of the Austrian Economy — Methods and Determinants," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 24-52.
    8. Mathieu Lefèbvre & Pierre Pestieau, 2006. "The generosity of the welfare state towards the elderly," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(5), pages 351-360, December.
    9. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    10. Karakaya, Güngör, 2008. "Early cessation of activity in the labour market: impact of supply and demand factors," MPRA Paper 13390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ehing, Daniel & Moog, Stefan, 2012. "Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060," FZG Discussion Papers 51, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    12. A. Bovenberg, 2005. "Balancing Work and Family Life during the Life Course," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(4), pages 399-423, December.
    13. Ulrike Schneider & Birgit Trukeschitz & Richard Mühlmann & Ivo Ponocny, 2013. "“Do I Stay Or Do I Go?”—Job Change And Labor Market Exit Intentions Of Employees Providing Informal Care To Older Adults," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(10), pages 1230-1249, October.
    14. repec:ilo:ilowps:386486 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    demographic trends and forecasts; economics of gender; force de travail et emploi; labour force and employment; politique des retraites; retirement; retirement policies; retraites; size and structure; taille et structure; tendances et prévisions démographiques; économie de l'égalité des sexes;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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