IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/265.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Grigoli, Francesco
  • Koczan, Zsoka
  • Topalova, Petia

Abstract

Despite significant headwinds from population aging in most advanced economies (AEs), labor force participation rates show remarkably divergent trajectories both across countries and across different groups of workers. Participation increased sharply among prime-age women and, more recently, older workers, but fell among the young and prime-age men. This paper investigates the determinants of these trends using aggregate and individual-level data. We find that the bulk of the dramatic increase in the labor force attachment of prime-age women and older workers in the past three decades can be explained by changes in labor market policies and institutions, structural transformation, and gains in educational attainment. Technological advances such as automation, on the other hand, weighed on the labor supply of prime-age and older workers. In light of the dramatic demographic shifts expected in the coming decades in many AEs, our findings underscore the need to invest in education and training, reform the tax system, reduce early retirement incentives, improve the job-matching process, and help individuals combine family and work life in order to alleviate the pressures from aging on labor supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2018. "Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 265, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:265
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/183212/1/GLO-DP-0265.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 205-230, Winter.
    2. L. Rachel Ngai & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1-44, October.
    3. Mette Foged & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigrants' Effect on Native Workers: New Analysis on Longitudinal Data," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
    4. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2018. "A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies," GLO Discussion Paper Series 264, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Cristina Cattaneo & Carlo V. Fiorio & Giovanni Peri, 2015. "What Happens to the Careers of European Workers When Immigrants “Take Their Jobs†?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 655-693.
    7. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695, Elsevier.
    8. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2013. "Female Labor Supply: Why Is the United States Falling Behind?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 251-256, May.
    11. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    12. Petia Topalova & Lone Engbo Christiansen & Ms. Joana Pereira & Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin & Rima Turk, 2016. "Gender Diversity in Senior Positions and Firm Performance: Evidence from Europe," IMF Working Papers 2016/050, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    14. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    15. Francesco D'Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigration, Jobs, And Employment Protection: Evidence From Europe Before And During The Great Recession," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 5, pages 153-185, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    17. Benedict J. Clements & Kamil Dybczak & Vitor Gaspar & Sanjeev Gupta & Mauricio Soto, 2015. "The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/21, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mauricio Soto & Vitor Gaspar & Mr. Kamil Dybczak, 2015. "The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/021, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Meeyeon Kim & Jisoo Hwang & Tae-Jeong Kim, 2014. "Strategies for Reforming Korea’s Labor Market to Foster Growth," IMF Working Papers 2014/137, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ms. Mitali Das & Weicheng Lian & Zsoka Koczan & Mai Chi Dao, 2017. "Why Is Labor Receiving a Smaller Share of Global Income? Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2017/169, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Axel Börsch-Supan & Irene Ferrari, 2017. "Old-age Labor Force Participation in Germany: What Explains the Trend Reversal among Older Men? And What the Steady Increase among Women?," NBER Working Papers 24044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Harry J. Holzer & Paul Offner & Elaine Sorensen, 2005. "Declining employment among young black less-educated men: The role of incarceration and child support," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 329-350.
    23. David M. Blau & Ryan M. Goodstein, 2010. "Can Social Security Explain Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Men in the United States?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    24. Angela Cipollone & Eleonora Patacchini & Giovanna Vallanti, 2013. "Women Labor Market Performance In Europe:Novel Evidence On Trends And Shaping Factors," Working Papers LuissLab 13107, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Petia Topalova & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan, 2018. "A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/120, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Bachmann, Ronald & Stepanyan, Gayane, 2020. "It's a Woman's World? Occupational Structure and the Rise of Female Employment in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224626, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Beulmann, Matthias, 2019. "Are they coming for us? Industrial robots and the mental health of workers," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 379, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2019. "Occupation Mobility, Human Capital and the Aggregate Consequences of Task-Biased Innovations," Working Papers 2019-064, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    5. Colombo, Emilio & Mercorio, Fabio & Mezzanzanica, Mario, 2019. "AI meets labor market: Exploring the link between automation and skills," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 27-37.
    6. Andrea Salvatori & Seetha Menon & Wouter Zwysen, 2018. "The effect of computer use on job quality: Evidence from Europe," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 200, OECD Publishing.
    7. Andrea Coveri & Mario Pianta, 2019. "The Structural Dynamics of Income Distribution:Technology, Wages and Profits," Working Papers 1901, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    8. Lewandowski, Piotr & Keister, Roma & Hardy, Wojciech & Górka, Szymon, 2020. "Ageing of routine jobs in Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    9. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Özcan, Berkay & Philipp, Julia, 2021. "Robots and the gender pay gap in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Austria: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/051, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
    12. Bick, Alexander & Brüggemann, Bettina & Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola & Paule-Paludkiewicz, Hannah, 2019. "Long-term changes in married couples' labor supply and taxes: Evidence from the US and Europe since the 1980s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 44-62.
    13. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Gaetano Basso & Giovanni Peri & Ahmed S. Rahman, 2020. "Computerization and immigration: Theory and evidence from the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1457-1494, November.
    15. Wright, Scott A. & Schultz, Ainslie E., 2018. "The rising tide of artificial intelligence and business automation: Developing an ethical framework," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(6), pages 823-832.
    16. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    17. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2019. "New Digital Technologies and Heterogeneous Employment and Wage Dynamics in the United States: Evidence from Individual-Level Data," IZA Discussion Papers 12242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Luis Moreno, 2019. "Robotization and Welfare Scenarios," Working Papers 1901, Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos (IPP), CSIC.
    19. (Maggie) Fu, Xiaoqing & Bao, Qun & Xie, Hongjun & Fu, Xiaolan, 2021. "Diffusion of industrial robotics and inclusive growth: Labour market evidence from cross country data," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 670-684.
    20. Janser, Markus, 2018. "The greening of jobs in Germany : First evidence from a text mining based index and employment register data," IAB Discussion Paper 201814, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor force participation; policies; technology; routinization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.