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Fiscal Consolidation and the Implications of Social Spending for Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Rossana Merola
  • Douglas Sutherland

Abstract

This paper sheds light on the scale of fiscal consolidation that will be needed toensure long-term sustainability and on the potential benefits of institutional reforms inmitigating budget pressures of social spending. Based on alternative scenarios, resultssuggest that, in several OECD countries, the fiscal challenges are exacerbated in the longterm by spending pressures related to health and pensions. This paper shows howinstitutional reforms may support long-term fiscal sustainability and, at the same time,reduce adverse short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on growth.

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Article provided by Università di Perugia in its journal Review of Economics and Institutions.

Volume (Year): 4 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:pia:review:v:4:y:2013:i:3:n:2
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Keywords: fiscal consolidation; long-term public finance sustainability; public social expenditure; long-term projections; ageing populations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
  • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
  • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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  1. Rossana Merola & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 3. Long-Run Projections and Fiscal Gap Calculations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 934, OECD Publishing.
  2. Balázs Égert, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-cyclical?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-12, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Meena Seshamani & Alastair Gray, 2004. "Ageing and health-care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 303-314.
  4. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
  5. Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Felder, 2004. "Life Expectancy and Health Care Expenditures: A New Calculation for Germany Using the Costs of Dying," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 452, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 947-963.
  7. Isabelle Joumard & Christophe André & Chantal Nicq, 2010. "Health Care Systems: Efficiency and Institutions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 769, OECD Publishing.
  8. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries; Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Balassone, Fabrizio & Cunha, Jorge & Langenus, Geert & Manzke, Bernhard & Pavot, Jeanne & Prammer, Doris & Tommasino, Pietro, 2009. "Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0994, European Central Bank.
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  11. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
  12. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Philip Bagnoli & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "Long-Term Growth Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000, OECD Publishing.
  13. Romain Bouis & Romain Duval, 2011. "Raising Potential Growth After the Crisis: A Quantitative Assessment of the Potential Gains from Various Structural Reforms in the OECD Area and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 835, OECD Publishing.
  14. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126.
  15. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2006. "The drivers of public expenditure on health and long-term care: An integrated approach," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2006(2), pages 115-154.
  16. F. Giavazzi & M. Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of two Small Euopean Countries," Working Papers 89, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  17. Richard Blundell & Costas Meghir & Sarah Smith, 2002. "Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C153-C170, March.
  18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3881 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Ray Barrell & Dr Ian Hurst & Simon Kirby, 2009. "How to Pay for the Crisis or Macroeconomic implications of pension reform," NIESR Discussion Papers 333, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  20. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  21. Peter Claeys, 2007. "Sustainability of EU fiscal policies, a panel test," IREA Working Papers 200702, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2007.
  22. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2007. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72.
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