Has the Stability and Growth Pact Stabilised? Evidence from a Panel of 12 European Countries and Some Implications for the Reform of the Pact
Ever since its inception EMU has been subject to controversy. The fiscal policy rules embedded in the Treaty on European Union, and clarified in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), are probably the most contentious. The SGP is being accused of being too rigid and of forcing pro-cyclicality in fiscal policy. We test the impact of the SGP rules on the cyclical properties of fiscal policy for a panel of 12 European countries. We conclude that contrary to what might have been expected the euro fiscal rules have reinforced the counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. However, the results also show that the SGP is not being applied symmetrically over the cycle, leading to insufficient fiscal consolidation during economic upswings. This explains the recent difficulties of Portugal, Germany and France in complying with SGP requirements. Based on these conclusions we argue for the creation of independent national technical committees that would define an appropriate deficit target on an annual basis.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.deEmail:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan Auerbach, 2002.
"Is There a Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy?,"
NBER Working Papers
9306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan J. Auerbach, 2002. "Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
- Buti, Marco & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Franco, Daniele, 2003.
"Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: Grand Design or Internal Adjustment?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Buti & Sylvester Eijffinger & Daniele Franco, 2003. "Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: grand design or internal adjustment?," European Economy - Economic Papers 180, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & JÃ¼rgen Von Hagen, 1999. "Reforming Budgetary Institutions in Latin America: The Case for a National Fiscal Council," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 415-442, October.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-176184 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003.
"Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
- Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lane, Philip R., 2003.
"The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
- Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152958 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R., 1995.
"Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-274, February.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Fiscal Flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for Monetary Union in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data Badi H. Baltagi Wiley, 1995," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 747-754, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.