IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03462247.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Reducing or Increasing the Nuisance

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This paper aims at providing a quantitative assessment of different proposals for reforming the Stability and Growth Pact by extending a counterfactual experiment performed in Eichengreen and Wyplosz (1998). Using estimated coefficients from a reduced form model, we simulate the path of the output gap for the largest Euro zone countries (France, Germany, Italy) after imposing limits to structural deficit according to different fiscal rules (structural deficit rules, golden rules and rules that incorporate the stock of debt). For each of these countries we can rank the different reform proposals in terms of output loss over the period considered. Our analysis has the merit of using a uniform method and hence allow a comparison across countries and across rules. The main results of the experiment, which emerge robustly, are (a), that the golden rule would be the most beneficial both using individual country's criteria and global criteria; and (b) that the status quo, the Maastricht rule, is less restrictive than many currently debated alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2005. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Reducing or Increasing the Nuisance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03462247, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03462247
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03462247
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03462247/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jérôme Creel, 2003. "Ranking Fiscal Policy Rules: the Golden Rule of Public Finance vs. the Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers hal-00972778, HAL.
    2. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2004. "Patching up the Pact," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 67-102, March.
    3. Marco Buti & André Sapir, 2002. "EMU in the Early Years: Differences and Credibility," Chapters, in: Marco Buti & André Sapir (ed.), EMU and Economic Policy in Europe, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2975 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Francesco Saraceno & Paola Monperrus-Veroni, 2004. "A Simple Proposal for a "Debt-Sensitive Stability Pact"," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(3), pages 471-480.
    6. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2003. "How to Reform Europe’s Fiscal Policy Framework," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 4(1), pages 109-116, January.
    7. Buti, Marco, 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact: grand design or internal adjustment?," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34908, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 66-113.
    9. Marco Buti & Sylvester Eijffinger & Daniele Franco, 2003. "Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: grand design or internal adjustment?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 180, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    11. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Improving the SGP Through a Proper Accounting of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. André Sapir & Marco Buti, 2002. "EMU and economic policy in Europe: the challenge of the early years," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8072, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:18:y:2003:i:37:p:533-572 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marco Buti & Gabriele Giudice, 2002. "Maastricht’s Fiscal Rules at Ten: An Assessment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 823-848, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00973049, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2842 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2842 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2005. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Reducing or Increasing the Nuisance," Working Papers hal-03462247, HAL.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2842 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2842 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Reducing or Increasing the Nuisance?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. Leopold Diebalek & Doris Prammer, 2006. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 78-109.
    8. Fiorella Kostoris Padoa Schioppa, 2006. "The 2005 Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Too Little, Too Late?," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 6, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    9. Leopold Diebalek & Walpurga Köhler-Töglhofer & Doris Prammer, 2006. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/06, pages 78-109.
    10. Szapáry, György & Orbán, Gábor, 2004. "A stabilitási és növekedési paktum az új tagállamok szemszögéből [The Stabilization and Growth Pact in the light of the new EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 810-831.
    11. Jakob de Haan & Helge Berger & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2003. "The End of the Stability and Growth Pact?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1093, CESifo.
    12. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2003. "Reforming the Stability and Growth Pact: Breaking the Ice," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2003-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    13. Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2005. "In Praise of Fiscal Restraint and Debt Rules. What the Euro Zone Might Do Now," CEPR Discussion Papers 5043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Orban, Gabor & Szapary, Gyorgy, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the perspective of the new member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 839-864, October.
    15. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Moriyama, Kenji, 2006. "Fiscal adjustment in EU countries: A balance sheet approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3281-3298, December.
    16. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Alessandro Turrini, 2004. "Public investment and the EU fiscal framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 202, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595, April.
    19. Csaba, László, 2006. "A stabilitási és növekedési egyezmény új politikai gazdaságtanáról [On the new political economy of the Stability and Growth Pact]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-30.
    20. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2005. "Has the Stability and Growth Pact Stabilised? Evidence from a Panel of 12 European Countries and Some Implications for the Reform of the Pact," CESifo Working Paper Series 1411, CESifo.
    21. Marek Lubiński, 2011. "Przyszłość paktu stabilności i wzrostu," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1-2, pages 19-42.
    22. Bernd Irlenbusch & Matthias Sutter, 2006. "An experimental analysis of voting in the Stability and Growth Pact in the European Monetary Union," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 417-434, December.
    23. Alessandro Girardi & Paolo Paesani, 2008. "Structural Reforms and Fiscal Discipline in Europe," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 15(2), pages 389-402, September.
    24. Mr. Anthony M Annett, 2006. "Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe’s Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 2006/116, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03462247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.