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An assessment of stability and growth pact reform proposals in a small-scale macro framework

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Creel

    () (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paul Hubert

    () (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Francesco Saraceno

    () (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate on fiscal governance for the European Monetary Union, assessing the different fiscal rules currently discussed. We simulate a small scale macroeconomic model with forward looking agents, augmented with a public finances block. We account for both the positive (output stabilization) and negative (via risk premia) effects of debt and deficit. By the appropriate choice of the exogenous fiscal variables, in the fiscal block, we replicate the working of the rules embedded in the socalled "fiscal compact": a balanced budget rule (the "new golden rule"), and the debt reduction rule (to reach 60% of GDP in 20 years). We compare these rules with the Maastricht 3% deficit limit (status quo), and with an "investment" rule leaving room for public investment. We evaluate the performance in terms of output loss during a fiscal consolidation, as well as following demand and supply shocks in steady state. All rules guarantee long run sustainability. The investment rule emerges robustly as the one guaranteeing the lower output loss, followed by the status quo. The "fiscal compact" rules appear to be recessionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "An assessment of stability and growth pact reform proposals in a small-scale macro framework," Working Papers hal-01070286, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01070286
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01070286
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Is There an Alternative Strategy for Reducing Public Debt by 2032?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 39-57, Februar.
    2. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2014. "French Public Finances at Risk?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 1-19, Februar.
    3. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2014. "French Public Finances at Risk?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 1-19, Februar.
    4. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2015. "The interaction between the labour tax wedge and structural reforms in Italy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 185-223.
    5. Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "Rethinking fiscal policy : lessons from the european monetary union," Sciences Po publications 219, Sciences Po.
    6. Luckas Sabioni Lopes & Marcelle Chauvet & João Eustáquio Lima, 2018. "The end of Brazilian big inflation: lessons to monetary policy from a standard New Keynesian model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1475-1505, December.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p5488g8pn is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bom, Pedro R.D., 2019. "Fiscal rules and the intergenerational welfare effects of public investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 455-470.
    9. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2012. "The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 537-563.
    10. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim Truger &, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery: iAGS 2017," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/55823teuik9, Sciences Po.
    11. Xavier Timbeau & Signe Dahl & Georg Feigl & Xavier Timbeau & Xavier Timbeau & Andrew Watt, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery. Independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) 2017," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 164, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    12. S. Menguy, 2014. "Which is the optimal fiscal rule in a monetary union? Targeting the structural, the global budgetary deficit, or the public debt?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Reicher, Claire A., 2014. "Fiscal targeting rules and macroeconomic stability under distortionary taxation," Kiel Working Papers 1968, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Rules; Small scale Macroeconomic Models; golden rule; fiscal consolidation; EMU economic governance; fiscal compact; Dynare;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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