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Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area

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  • Hauptmeier, Sebastian
  • Sanchez Fuentes, Jesus
  • Schuknecht, Ludger

Abstract

The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on expenditure rules since the start of EMU. It also calculates the implications for debt trends. It finds that, all sample countries except Germany applied expansionary expenditure policies. This resulted in much higher expenditure and debt paths compared to a counterfactual neutral expenditure stance. Simple and prudent rules-based spending policies could have led to much safer fiscal positions much more in line with the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact rules. JEL Classification: E17, E61, E65, H50, H60

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1266.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101266
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Keywords: Expenditure policies; expenditure rules; fiscal stance; public debt; sustainability;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
  • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
  • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

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  1. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of numerical expenditure rules on budgetary discipline over the cycle," Working Paper Series 1169, European Central Bank.
  2. Xavier Debrun & Laurent Moulin & Alessandro Turrini & Joaquim Ayuso-i-Casals & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2008. "Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 297-362, 04.
  3. Bruck, Tilman & Zwiener, Rudolf, 2006. "Fiscal policy rules for stabilisation and growth: A simulation analysis of deficit and expenditure targets in a monetary union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 357-369, May.
  4. Menguy, Séverine, 2008. "A dynamic rule applied to the threshold imposed on the European budgetary deficits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1093-1105.
  5. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, 06.
  6. Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Fiscal policy and the cycle in the Euro Area: The role of government revenue and expenditure," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 323, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  7. Peter Wierts, 2008. "How do Expenditure Rules affect Fiscal Behaviour?," DNB Working Papers 166, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Michael Kumhof & Dirk V Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in ‘t Veld & René Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & Günter Coenen & Susan, 2010. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," IMF Working Papers 10/73, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:

  1. Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "An assessment of Stability and Growth Pact Reform Proposals in a Small-Scale Macro Framework," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  2. Lamo, Ana & Pérez, Javier J. & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2013. "Are government wages interlinked with private sector wages?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 697-712.
  3. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 1. How Much is Needed and How to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 932, OECD Publishing.
  4. Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2013. "The debt trap: a two-compartment train wreck," MPRA Paper 47578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h0g8tgo is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Mencinger, Jernej & Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Stance in the European Union: The Impact of the Euro," MPRA Paper 44708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Schuknecht, Ludger & Moutot, Philippe & Rother, Philipp & Stark , Jürgen, 2011. "The Stability and Growth Pact - crisis and reform," Occasional Paper Series 129, European Central Bank.
  8. Anderson, Derek & Hunt, Benjamin & Snudden, Stephen, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: How much pain can structural reforms ease?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 785-799.
  9. Ludger Schuknecht, 2013. "Has Public Insurance Gone Too Far?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4217, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2014. "The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 241-256.
  11. Maravalle, Alessandro & Claeys, Peter, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles and procyclical fiscal policy in a small open economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 735-754.
  12. António Afonso & Ana Sofia Guimarães, 2014. "The relevance of fiscal rules for fiscal and yield developments," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  13. Matthias Bauer, 2013. "Political Aversion To a Multilateral Fiscal Rule: The Dynamic Commitment Problem in European Fiscal Governance," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 44-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  14. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
  15. Sacchi, Agnese & Salotti, Simone, 2014. "The impact of national fiscal rules on the stabilisation function of fiscal policy," MPRA Paper 56982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Ermal Hitaj & Yasin Kursat Onder, 2013. "Fiscal Discipline in WAEMU; Rules, Institutions, and Markets," IMF Working Papers 13/216, International Monetary Fund.

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