From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU
This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and the fiscal surveillance process. Deviations of ex-post from first-release fiscal figures may arise for political and strategic reasons. In particular, Ministries of Finance control the production of first-release figures, and may have an incentive to be over-optimistic at this stage. Our results suggest that an improvement in the quality of institutions, whether measured by the tightness of national fiscal rules, the medium-term budgetary framework or budgetary transparency, reduces the degree of optimism at the first-release stage, thereby making first-release figures more informative about the eventual outcomes. This supports the European Commission proposals for minimum standards for national fiscal frameworks and amendments by the European Parliament for improving national ownership. It also strengthens the case for a close monitoring by the Commission of the first-release production of fiscal figures.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philip R. Lane, 2002.
"The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD,"
Trinity Economics Papers
20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
- Álvaro M. Pina, 2009. "Elusive Counter-Cyclicality and Deliberate Opportunism? Fiscal Policy from Plans to Final Outcomes," Working Papers w200906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010.
"Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2008. "Fiscal Adjustment to Cyclical Developments in the OECD: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram Wolff, 2006.
"Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia,"
DNB Working Papers
103, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Fool The Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency And Sovereign Risk Premia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 465-487, 09.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2006. "Fool the Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency and Sovereign Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 1732, CESifo Group Munich.
- Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011.
"A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,"
Working Paper Series
11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2009. "Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 753-804, October.
- Strauch, Rolf & Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004.
"Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes,"
Working Paper Series
0307, European Central Bank.
- Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Francisco Castro & Javier J. Pérez & Marta Rodríguez‐Vives, 2013.
"Fiscal Data Revisions in Europe,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1187-1209, 09.
- de Castro Fernández, Francisco & Pérez, Javier J. & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta, 2011. "Fiscal data revisions in Europe," Working Paper Series 1342, European Central Bank.
- Francisco de Castro & Javier J. Pérez & Marta Rodríguez Vives, 2011. "Fiscal data revisions in Europe," Working Papers 1106, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Xavier Debrun & Laurent Moulin & Alessandro Turrini & Joaquim Ayuso-i-Casals & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2008. "Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 297-362, 04.
- Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Has the Stability and Growth Pact Impeded Political Budget Cycles in the European Union?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1532, CESifo Group Munich.
- von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
- John Lewis, 2013.
"Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3347-3359, August.
- John Lewis, 2009. "Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: Cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession," DNB Working Papers 214, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2006.
"Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 3-15, 02.
- Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 508, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Stephan, Andreas & Brück, Tilman, 2005. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2005,5, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
- Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2008.
"Fiscal policy in real time,"
Working Paper Series
0919, European Central Bank.
- Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of numerical expenditure rules on budgetary discipline over the cycle," Working Paper Series 1169, European Central Bank.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Mark Walschot & Peter Wierts, 2010.
"Fifty Years of Fiscal Planning and Implementation in the Netherlands,"
DNB Working Papers
260, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2013. "Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-138.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2010. "Fifty Years of Fiscal Planning and Implementation in the Netherlands," CEPR Discussion Papers 7969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Heinemann, Friedrich, 2005.
"Planning or propaganda? An evaluation of Germany's medium-term budgetary planning,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
05-12, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Friedrich Heinemann, 2006. "Planning or Propaganda? An Evaluation of Germany's Medium-term Budgetary Planning," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(4), pages 551-578, December.
- Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco & Stefania Zotteri, 2007. "The Reliability of EMU FIscal Indicators: Risks and Safeguards," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 633, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2008.
"The stability and growth pact, fiscal policy institutions and stabilization in Europe,"
International Economics and Economic Policy,
Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 189-207, July.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2007. "The Stability and Growth Pact, Fiscal Policy Institutions, and Stabilization in Europe," GEMF Working Papers 2007-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1987.
"Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
2428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco & Stefania Zotteri, 2006. "EMU fiscal indicators: a misleading compass?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 63-87, June.
- Weingast, Barry R. & Wittman, Donald, 2008. "The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199548477, May.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2013.
"A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,"
Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,
in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391
Central Bank of Chile.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 39-78, August.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 604, Central Bank of Chile.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," NBER Working Papers 16945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jürgen Hagen, 2010. "Sticking to fiscal plans: the role of institutions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 487-503, September.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008.
"Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data,"
DNB Working Papers
169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007.
"The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2007/23, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.