Planning or Propaganda? An Evaluation of Germany's Medium-term Budgetary Planning
In Germany, medium-term financial planning (Mifrifi) was introduced at the end of the sixties. This study scrutinizes the German federal government's experience of more than thirty years of financial planning. The paper begins by exploring the potential normative and political-economic driving forces behind fiscal projections. The following empirical analysis evaluates the forecasting quality of medium-term financial planing with regard to expenditures, taxes, and deficits. A model is tested that relates forecast budgetary trends to economic, institutional, and political-economic factors. Current financial planning is shown to be ineffective in making budgetary policy more predictable. Rather than promoting more credible and binding projections, the Maastricht Treaty appears to have encouraged even less realistic budgetary planning and overoptimistic financial projections in Germany. The policy conclusion suggests that responsibility for fiscal forecasts may need to be transferred to an independent institution.
Volume (Year): 62 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.mohr.de/fa|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Mohr Siebeck GmbH & Co. KG, P.O.Box 2040, 72010 Tübingen, Germany|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Forecast evaluation and combination,"
9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004.
"Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Strauch, Rolf & Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes," Working Paper Series 0307, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(200612)62:4_551:popaeo_2.0.tx_2-v. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Wolpert)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.