Planning or Propaganda? An Evaluation of Germany's Medium-term Budgetary Planning
In Germany, medium-term financial planning (Mifrifi) was introduced at the end of the sixties. This study scrutinizes the German federal government's experience of more than thirty years of financial planning. The paper begins by exploring the potential normative and political-economic driving forces behind fiscal projections. The following empirical analysis evaluates the forecasting quality of medium-term financial planing with regard to expenditures, taxes, and deficits. A model is tested that relates forecast budgetary trends to economic, institutional, and political-economic factors. Current financial planning is shown to be ineffective in making budgetary policy more predictable. Rather than promoting more credible and binding projections, the Maastricht Treaty appears to have encouraged even less realistic budgetary planning and overoptimistic financial projections in Germany. The policy conclusion suggests that responsibility for fiscal forecasts may need to be transferred to an independent institution.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 62 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.mohr.de/fa|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Mohr Siebeck GmbH & Co. KG, P.O.Box 2040, 72010 Tübingen, Germany|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Strauch, Rolf & Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004.
"Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes,"
Working Paper Series
0307, European Central Bank.
- Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- LF Jameson Boex & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Robert McNab, 1998. "Multi-Year Budgeting: A Review of International Practices and Lessons for Developing and Transitional Economies," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper9804, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Campbell, B. & Ghysels, E., 1995.
"An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process,"
Cahiers de recherche
9523, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-76, August.
- Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-08, CIRANO.
- Campbell, B. & Ghysels, E., 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Cahiers de recherche 9523, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Forecast evaluation and combination,"
9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Blackley, Paul R & DeBoer, Larry, 1993. "Bias in OMB's Economic Forecasts and Budget Proposals," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 76(3), pages 215-32, July.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004.
"Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts,"
European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015
210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(200612)62:4_551:popaeo_2.0.tx_2-v. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Wolpert)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.