Planning or propaganda? An evaluation of Germany's medium-term budgetary planning
In Germany, the medium-term financial planning ("Mifrifi") was introduced at the end of the sixties. This study scrutinizes the experience of the German Bund with more than thirty years of financial planning. In the first step, the paper explores the potential normative and political-economic driving forces of fiscal projections. The following empirical part evaluates Mifrifi?s forecasting quality with regard to expenditures, taxes and deficits. A model is tested relating the forecasted budgetary trends to economic, institutional and political-economic factors. The financial planning turns out to be ineffective in making budgetary policy more predictable. The projections are heavily biased towards over-optimism. The Maastricht Treaty appears to have transformed Germany?s budgetary planning not into the direction of more credible and binding projections, but rather towards the production of less realistic and unduly favourable outlooks. The policy conclusion hints towards an independent institution taking over the responsibility for fiscal forecasts. Such an institution would not face the government?s inherent problem being unable to promise in a credible way the production of unbiased forecasts.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: L 7,1; D - 68161 Mannheim|
Web page: http://www.zew.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004.
"Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Strauch, Rolf & Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes," Working Paper Series 0307, European Central Bank.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006.
"Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Forecast evaluation and combination,"
9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Blackley, Paul R & DeBoer, Larry, 1993. "Bias in OMB's Economic Forecasts and Budget Proposals," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 76(3), pages 215-232, July.
- Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1995.
"An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
- Campbell, B. & Ghysels, E., 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Cahiers de recherche 9523, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Campbell, B. & Ghysels, E., 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Cahiers de recherche 9523, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- LF Jameson Boex & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Robert McNab, 1998. "Multi-Year Budgeting: A Review of International Practices and Lessons for Developing and Transitional Economies," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper9804, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/14, .
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:2902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.