The determinants of macroeconomic forecasts and the Stability and Growth Pact
This paper identifies the determinants of macroeconomic forecasts (budget balance, public debt and real GDP growth), of the governments of the 15 EU countries. We have used the forecasts of the Stability and Convergence Programmes submitted between 1998/99 and 2008/09 and the European Commission’s. Results show that, in general, economic growth forecasts submitted by European governments are more optimistic than those published by the European Commission. The lack of accuracy of government forecasts is due to “misinformation” regarding the economic situation at the time of their publication. The differences between observed and forecast changes of budget balance and public debt are explained by the output growth forecast errors and the forecasts of the changes in the two fiscal indicators. These forecast changes tend to revise downwards the changes submitted in the previous Program. Therefore, the governments’ “bad intention” seems to result from their lack of commitment to the objectives of previous programs and it explains the recurrent delays in the implementation of their fiscal consolidation plans.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL|
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kenji Moriyama & Gian Milesi-Ferretti, 2004.
"Fiscal Adjustment in EU Countries; A Balance Sheet Approach,"
IMF Working Papers
04/143, International Monetary Fund.
- Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Moriyama, Kenji, 2006. "Fiscal adjustment in EU countries: A balance sheet approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3281-3298, December.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2009. "Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 753-804, October.
- Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2009. "The Cyclical Reaction of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: The Role of Modelling Choices and Data Vintages," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 39-72, 03.
- Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011.
"The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
- Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/23, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010.
"Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2008. "Fiscal Adjustment to Cyclical Developments in the OECD: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006.
"Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Álvaro M. Pina, 2009. "Elusive Counter-Cyclicality and Deliberate Opportunism? Fiscal Policy from Plans to Final Outcomes," Working Papers w200906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Stephan, Andreas & Brück, Tilman, 2005.
"Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?,"
Working Paper Series
2005,5, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
- Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2006. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 3-15, 02.
- Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 508, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp072013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vitor Escaria)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.