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Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU

Author

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  • Beetsma, Roel
  • Giuliodori, Massimo
  • Wierts, Peter

Abstract

Using real-time data from Europe's Stability and Convergence Programs, we explore how fiscal plans and their implementation in the EU are determined. We find that (1) implemented budgetary adjustment falls systematically short of planned adjustment and this shortfall increases with the projection horizon, (2) variability in the eventual fiscal outcomes is dominated by the implementation errors, (3) there is a limited role for "traditional" political variables, (4) stock-flow adjustments are more important when plans are more ambitious, and (5), most importantly, both the ambition in fiscal plans and their implementation benefit from stronger national fiscal institutions. We emphasise also the importance of credible plans for the eventual fiscal outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter, 2009. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 7285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bénétrix, Agustín & Lane, Philip R., 2010. "International Differences in Fiscal Policy During the Global Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "External imbalances and macroeconomic policy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 53-70, April.
    3. Philip Lane, 2011. "The Irish Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp356, IIIS.
    4. Stracca, Livio & Ioannou, Demosthenes, 2011. "Have euro area and EU economic governance worked? Just the facts," Working Paper Series 1344, European Central Bank.
    5. Christie Smith, 2011. "Conference summary: New Zealand's macroeconomic imbalances -- causes and remedies," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 74, pages 5-10, September.
    6. Cepparulo, Alessandra & Gastaldi, Francesca & Giuriato, Luisa & Sacchi, Agnese, 2011. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy:the Italian case," MPRA Paper 32474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of numerical expenditure rules on budgetary discipline over the cycle," Working Paper Series 1169, European Central Bank.
    9. Philip Lane, 2010. "Some Lessons for Fiscal Policy from the Financial Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp334, IIIS.
    10. Lane, Philip R., 2009. "A New Fiscal Strategy for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 233-253.
    11. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio, 2014. "Have the euro area and EU governance worked? Just the facts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU; Fiscal policy; fiscal rules; implementation; medium-term budgetary framework; planning; real-time data;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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