Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data
This paper examines the information-related problems associated with the analysis of fiscal policies, an issue recently studied in connection with monetary policies but largely ignored in the literature on budgetary action. We estimate a fiscal policy rule for the EU and OECD countries using real-time data on cyclical conditions; the results indicate that over the last decade fiscal policies reacted strongly and counter-cyclically to adverse macroeconomic conditions. Using ex post data instead, the reaction to adverse cyclical conditions is weaker and not statistically significant. The results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy-makers in real-time is important for the assessment of past policies, as ex post revised data may provide a misleading basis for such analysis. The results also suggest that part of the problems the Stability and Growth Pact encountered may have come from a misjudgment of cyclical conditions in some European countries in recent years.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Applied Economics Quarterly 3-2004.50(2004): pp. 299-326|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan J. Auerbach, 2002.
"Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
- John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
- Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004.
"Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Fabrizio BALASSONE & Maura FRANCESE, . "Cyclical Asymmetry in Fiscal Policy, Debt Accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," EcoMod2004 330600014, EcoMod.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999.
"The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999.
"Investment and Demand Uncertainty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
- Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003.
"Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe,"
NBER Working Papers
9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Larch & Matteo Salto, 2005.
"Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1135-1146.
- Martin Larch & Matteo Salto, 2003. "Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 194, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
- Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
- Jean-Claude Chouraqui & Robert P. Hagemann & Nicola Sartor, 1990. "Indicators of Fiscal Policy: A Re-Examination," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 78, OECD Publishing.
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003.
"Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
- Marco Buti & Paul van den Noord, 2004. "Fiscal policy in EMU: Rules, discretion and political incentives," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 206, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 2003. "Forecasting exogenous fiscal variables in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rünstler, Gerhard, 2002. "The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 0182, European Central Bank.
- Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
- Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.