Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht
In this paper we present a stylised framework of fiscal policy determination that considers both structural targets and cyclical factors. Applying this framework to a sample of 16 OECD countries, we find evidence of significant asymmetry in the reaction of fiscal policy to positive and negative cyclical conditions, with budgetary balances deteriorating in contractions and not improving in expansions. This asymmetry appears to have contributed significantly to debt accumulation. We find no evidence that EU fiscal rules have reduced the ability of governments to conduct stabilisation policy between 1992 and 2000.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma|
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, .
"Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe,"
142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Economics Working Papers eco98/2, European University Institute.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules based on real-time data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Martin Larch & Matteo Salto, 2005.
"Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1135-1146.
- Martin Larch & Matteo Salto, 2003. "Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 194, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
- André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004.
"Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data,"
4315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003.
"Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe,"
NBER Working Papers
9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, February.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
- Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
- Francesco Zollino, 2004. "Social mobility and endogenous cycles in redistribution," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 505, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Melitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. Buti & D. Franco & H. Ongena, 1997.
"Budgetary Policies during Recessions - Retrospective Application of the "Stability and Growth Pact" to the Post-War Period,"
European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015
121, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Marco BUTI & Daniele FRANCO & Hedwig ONGENA, 1997. "Budgeetary Policies during Recessions : Retrospective Application of the Stability and Growth Pact” to the Post-War Period," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1997041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001.
"Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach,"
Working Paper Series
0077, European Central Bank.
- Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- repec:sae:niesru:v:174:y::i:1:p:92-104 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_531_04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.