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Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe


  • Michael Artis
  • Massimiliano Marcellino


This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective of the European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government finances; and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of official short-term fiscal forecasts (those of the OECD) is analysed using conventional techniques and found to be reassuring.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Working Papers 142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:142

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    2. Kinnunen, Helvi & Kuoppamäki, Pasi, 1998. "Sustainability of public finances in Finland and the four largest Euro-area Economies," Research Discussion Papers 25/1998, Bank of Finland.
    3. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese & Stefania Zotteri, 2010. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal variables in the EU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 381-402, November.
    4. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:694-706 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
    6. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese & Stefania Zotteri, 2008. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal variables," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 671, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Thomas D. Willett, "undated". "A Political Economy Analysis of the Maastricht and Stability Pact Fiscal Criteria," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-33, Claremont Colleges.
    8. Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2005. "Fiscal policy sustainability: test of intertemporal borrowing constraints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 957-962.
    9. Claeys, Peter, 2007. "Sustainability of EU Fiscal Policies: a Panel Test," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 112-127.
    10. Alberto Bagnai, 2004. "Keynesian and neoclassical fiscal susteinability indicators, with applications to EMU member countries," Working Papers 75, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
    11. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt9823140f, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    12. Laura Carabotta, 2014. "Which Agency and Which Period is The Best? Analyzing National and International Fiscal Forecasts in Italy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-46.
    13. Fabrizio BALASSONE & Maura FRANCESE, "undated". "Cyclical Asymmetry in Fiscal Policy, Debt Accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," EcoMod2004 330600014, EcoMod.
    14. Gerrit B. Koester & Christoph Priesmeier, 2013. "Does Wagner´s Law Ruin the Sustainability of German Public Finances?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 69(3), pages 256-288, September.
    15. Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
    16. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "'Close-to-Balance or in Surplus': A Policy-Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 563-591, November.
    17. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Javier Biscarri & Fernando Gracia, 2004. "Stock market cycles and stock market development in Spain," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 127-151, July.
    19. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    21. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler, 2014. "Panel Cointegration Tests on the Fiscal Sustainability of German Laender," CESifo Working Paper Series 4929, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D99 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Other
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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