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Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece

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  • Makrydakis, Stelios
  • Tzavalis, Elias
  • Balfoussias, Athanassios

Abstract

This paper questions the widespead practice of assessing the hypothesis of long-run fiscal policy sustainability by means of conventional unit-root tests that do not allow for the possible impact of regime shifts. Using the Greek economy as a model case, the Zivot- Andrews squential integrability testing procedure which allows for the endogenous determination of possible regime changes is deployed to this end.
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  • Makrydakis, Stelios & Tzavalis, Elias & Balfoussias, Athanassios, 1998. "Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:16:y:1998:i:1:p:71-86
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    Cited by:

    1. Efthymios Tsionas, 2003. "Inflation and Productivity in Europe: An Empirical Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 39-62, March.
    2. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    3. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    4. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Shazali Abu Mansor & Chin-Hong Puah, 2009. "Testing Stationarity of Budgetary Position in Developing Countries," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 77-87, April.
    5. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Samuel S Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach," Working Papers 201023, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2007. "The growth effects of fiscal policy in Greece 1960–2000," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 157-175, April.
    8. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan, 2007. "Regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 878-894, November.
    10. Georgios P. Kouretas & Prodromos Vlamis, 2010. "The Greek Crisis: Causes and Implications," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 391-404, December.
    11. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA.
    12. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "P-STAR analysis in a converging economy: the case of Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-60, January.
    13. Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2001. "Fiscal policy and politics: theory and evidence from Greece 1960-1997," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-268, April.
    14. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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