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Public debt, the unit root hypothesis and structural breaks: a multi-country analysis

Author

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  • Merih Uctum

    (Brooklyn College - CUNY - City University of New-York [New-York], Graduate Center - CUNY - City University of New-York [New-York])

  • Thom Thurston

    (Graduate Center - CUNY - City University of New-York [New-York], Queen's College - CUNY - City University of New-York [New-York])

  • Remzi Uctum

    (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We assess fiscal performances in G7 and selected Latin American and Asian countries. We analyze two questions: (i) have public finances been sustainable? (ii) do countries follow more restrictive fiscal policies when debt starts to rise? We find that: (i) The traditional unit root tests often overlook the corrective actions taken by many governments. Controlling for structural breaks changes the nonstationarity results dramatically among the three groups; (ii) Estimation of a reaction function for governments, expanded by incorporating structural breaks, provides further evidence for significant active anti-debt policies among the G7 and to a lesser extent in the other regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public debt, the unit root hypothesis and structural breaks: a multi-country analysis," Post-Print halshs-00081527, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00081527
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00081527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan HANOUSEK & Evžen KOČENDA, 2009. "Public investment and growth in New EU member states: an overview," Departmental Working Papers 2009-23, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    2. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2018. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    3. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:3:a:66468 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chih-Chin Ho & Yu-Shan Hsu & Ching-Shin Mao, 2011. "Fiscal Discipline in the Recovery from a Global Financial Crisis," Chapters,in: The Impact of the Economic Crisis on East Asia, chapter 9 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Bhatt, Antra, 2010. "Revisiting Indicators of Public Debt Sustainability: Capital Expenditure, Growth and Public Debt in India," MPRA Paper 27422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2014. "Fiscal reform and fiscal sustainability: Evidence from Australia and Sweden," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 141-151.
    7. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Public Investment and Fiscal Performance in the New EU Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 43-71, March.
    8. Andric, Vladimir & Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra, 2016. "Fiscal Pressure of Interest Payments in Serbia - a Time Series Exploration," EconStor Preprints 141322, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    9. Gnegne, Yacouba & Jawadi, Fredj, 2013. "Boundedness and nonlinearities in public debt dynamics: A TAR assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 154-160.
    10. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Vazba korupce a hospodářské svobody na veřejné finance a investice nových členů EU
      [Corruption and Economic Freedom Links to Public Finance and Investment in New EU Members]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(3), pages 310-328.
    11. Shijaku, Gerti, 2012. "Sustainability of fiscal policy: the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2010. "Spend-and-Tax Adjustments and the Sustainability of the Government's Intertemporal Budget Constraint," CESifo Working Paper Series 2926, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "Fiscal convergence in the European Union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-330, December.
    14. Nimai Das, 2015. "Subnational level fiscal health in India: stability and sustainability implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 71-91, February.
    15. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2008. "Nonlinear Alternatives to Unit Root Tests and Public Finances Sustainability: Some Evidence from Latin American and Caribbean Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 645-663, October.
    16. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou, 2016. "A "litmus test" of Deficit Sustainability: The Case of the Greek Budget Deficit," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 65-73, August.
    17. Andric, Vladimir & Arsic, Milojko & Mladenovic, Zorica, 2016. "The Dynamics of Public Debt in Serbia - A Nonlinear Analysis," EconStor Preprints 144713, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    18. Andric, Vladimir & Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra, 2016. "Public Debt Sustainability in Serbia-Evidence from Transition and the Great Recession," EconStor Preprints 126682, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    19. Vladimir Andrić & Milojko Arsić & Aleksandra Nojković, 2016. "Public Debt Sustainability In Serbia Before And During The Global Financial Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 47-78, July - Se.

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    Keywords

    fiscal policy; sustainability; government reaction function; structural breaks;

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