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Indicators and Tests of Fiscal Sustainability: An Integrated Approach

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Abstract

This paper shows that indicators and tests of government solvency should not be used alternatively. We present a simple and intuitive procedure to integrate simultaneously the results from the two approaches to fiscal sustainability. An application to U.S. post-World War II data demonstrates the empirical relevance of the proposed strategy. Our results suggest that U.S. fiscal policy is on a sustainable path, since the warning predictions of tax gap indicators merely reflect cyclical factors.

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  • Giancarlo Marini & Alessandro Piergallini, 2008. "Indicators and Tests of Fiscal Sustainability: An Integrated Approach," CEIS Research Paper 111, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Jul 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:111
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaur, Balbir & Mukherjee, Atri & Ekka, Anand Prakash, 2017. "Debt Sustainability of States in India: An Assessment," MPRA Paper 81929, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Sustainability; Fiscal Indicators; Tests of Government Solvency;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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