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The Fallacy of Fiscal Discipline

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  • Canofari, Paolo
  • Piergallini, Alessandro
  • Piersanti, Giovanni

Abstract

Fiscal discipline is commonly evaluated on the basis of the debt-GDP ratio, which exhibits a stock variable measured relative to a flow variable. This way of monitoring debt solvency is arguably not consistent with transversality conditions obtained from optimizing macroeconomic frameworks. In this paper we consider a wealth-based sustainability index of government debt policy derived from a baseline endogenous growth model. We calculate the index from 1999 onwards for countries in which the after-growth real interest rate is positive, consistently with the theoretical setup. Results are radically different from common wisdom. We show that the fiscal position is sustainable for both Germany and Italy, and strongly unsustainable for both Japan and France. Policy implications of our findings are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Canofari, Paolo & Piergallini, Alessandro & Piersanti, Giovanni, 2018. "The Fallacy of Fiscal Discipline," MPRA Paper 88427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88427
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Piergallini, 2021. "Is fiscal austerity really self‐defeating?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(6), pages 1228-1260, December.
    2. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "A quest between fiscal and market discipline," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Paolo Canofari & Alessandro Ponte, 2018. "Chinese and European Financial Systems: Instability Drivers and Contagion Channels," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(4), pages 311-324, November.
    4. Canofari, Paolo & Marini, Giancarlo & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2020. "Financial Crisis and Sustainability of US Fiscal Deficit: Indicators or Tests?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 192-204.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Discipline; Financial Wealth; Sustainability Indicators.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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