IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2012-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone. An Empirical Test

Author

Listed:
  • Paul De Grauwe
  • Yuemei Ji

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that the government bond markets in the Eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self-fulfilling liquidity crises than in stand-alone countries. We find evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the PIGS countries in the Eurozone during 2010-11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space ariables, and was the result of negative self-fulfilling market sentiments that became very strong since the end of 2010. We argue that this can drive member countries of the Eurozone into bad equilibria.We also find evidence that after years of neglecting highgovernment debt, investors became increasingly worried about this in the Eurozone, and reacted by raising the spreads. No such worries developed in stand-alone countries despite the fact that debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space variables were equally high and increasing in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone. An Empirical Test," CAMA Working Papers 2012-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/37_degrauwe_ji_2012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 84.1-84.16.
    2. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
    3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 12, pages 297-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-661, September.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    10. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 2000. "Lending booms, reserves and the sustainability of short-term debt: inferences from the pricing of syndicated bank loans," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 5-44, October.
    12. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
    13. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June.
    14. Kopf, Christian, 2011. "Restoring financial stability in the euro area," CEPS Papers 4292, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    15. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Megginson, William L, 1990. "Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1517-1540, December.
    16. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    17. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Borgy, V. & Laubach, T. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2014. "How much Fiscal Discipline in a Monetary Union?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 348-360.
    2. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Steinbach, Armin, 2017. "The EU debt crisis: Testing and revisiting conventional legal doctrine," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 29-37.
    3. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2014. "The Future of the Eurozone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 15-34, September.
    4. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Suh, Sangwon, 2015. "Measuring sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-65.
    6. Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Strategic Interactions and Contagion Effects under Monetary Unions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1618-1629, October.
    7. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    8. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 711-724, April.
    9. Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Piersanti Giovanni, 2013. "Theory and practice of contagion in monetary unions. Domino effects in EU Mediterranean countries: The case of Greece, Italy and Spain," wp.comunite 0098, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2014. "Disappearing government bond spreads in the eurozone – Back to normal?," CEPS Papers 9249, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    11. Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    12. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, María Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2018. "“Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-30.
    13. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 30, July-Dece.
    14. Cayon, Edgardo & Thorp, Susan & Wu, Eliza, 2018. "Immunity and infection: Emerging and developed market sovereign spreads over the Global Financial Crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 162-174.
    15. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
    16. Elisabetta Croci Angelini & Francesco Farina & Enzo Valentini, 2016. "Contagion across Eurozone’s sovereign spreads and the Core-Periphery divide," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 197-213, February.
    17. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    18. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 363-371.
    19. Cheng, Jin & Dai, Meixing & Dufourt, Frédéric, 2017. "Banking and sovereign debt crises in a monetary union without central bank intervention," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 142-151.
    20. Jonathan W. Welburn, 2020. "Crises Beyond Belief: Findings on Contagion, the Role of Beliefs, and the Eurozone Debt Crisis from a Borrower–Lender Game," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 263-317, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.