The EMS Crisis of the 1990s: Parallels with the present crisis?
The EMS crisis of the 1990s illustrated the importance of a lack of confidence in price or exchange rate stability, whereas the present crisis illustrates the importance of a lack of confidence in fiscal sustainability. Theoretically the difference between the two should be minor since, in terms of the real return to an investor, the loss of purchasing power can be the same when inflation is unexpectedly high, or when the nominal value of government debt is cut in a formal default. Experience has shown, however, that expropriation via a formal default is much more disruptive than via inflation. The paper starts by providing a brief review of the EMS crisis, emphasising that the most interesting period might be the ‘post-EMS’ crisis of 1993-95. It then reviews in section 2 the crisis factors, comparing the EMS crisis to today’s euro crisis. Section 3 outlines the main analytical issue, namely the potential instability of high public debt within and outside a monetary union. Section 4 then compares the pressure on public finance coming from the crises for the case of Italy. Section 5 uses data on ‘foreign currency’ debt to disentangle expectations of devaluation/inflation from expectations of default. Section 6 concludes.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+322) 229-39-11
Fax: (+322) 229-39-71
Web page: http://www.ceps.eu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gros, Daniel, 2012. "A simple model of multiple equilibria and sovereign default," CEPS Papers 7174, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995.
"The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1724, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 95-22, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yuemei Ji & Paul De Grauwe, 2013. "The Fragility of two Monetary Regimes: The European Monetary System and the Eurozone," CESifo Working Paper Series 4471, CESifo Group Munich.
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986.
"Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2013. "The fragility of two monetary regimes: The European Monetary System and the Eurozone," Working Paper Research 243, National Bank of Belgium.
- Gros, Daniel, 2011. "Speculative Attacks within or outside a Monetary Union: Default versus Inflation (what to do today)," CEPS Papers 6359, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- De Grauwe, Paul, 2011. "Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," CEPS Papers 5523, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- Adrian, Tobias & Gros, Daniel, 1999. "A Stochastic Model of Self-Fulfilling Crises in Fixed Exchange Rate Systems," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 129-46, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:9119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Margarita Minkova)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.