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EMU, the changing role of public debt and the revival of sovereign credit risk perception

  • Schmid, Kai Daniel
  • Schmidt, Michael

Using annual data for 21 OECD countries we provide evidence of remarkable mispricing of sovereign bonds for the so-called GIIPS countries before the start of the financial crisis. Our results also qualify the view of pronounced overpricing in the crisis. In detail, we find: (i) Since the 1980s the role of public debt for the pricing of government bonds has changed twice: First-time in the aftermath of the signing of the Maastricht treaty, and again with the wake-up call due to the onset of the financial crisis. (ii) Before the financial crisis EMU member countries had de facto been perceived as a homogenous group with regard to the role of public debt for sovereign risk pricing. (iii) With the reconsideration of country-specific fundamentals the role of public debt has not only been revived but its impact upon bond yield spreads has become comparable to the time before the Maastricht treaty.

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Paper provided by University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences in its series University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 48.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuewef:48
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  1. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
  2. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
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  6. Michael Frömmel & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," CREATES Research Papers 2009-23, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. Kopf, Christian, 2011. "Restoring financial stability in the euro area," CEPS Papers 4292, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  8. David M. Drukker, 2003. "Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 168-177, June.
  9. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 718, OECD Publishing.
  10. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Die Target-Kredite der Deutschen Bundesbank," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65, pages 03-34, 03.
  11. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
  12. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
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