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Theory and practice of contagion in monetary unions. Domino effects in EU Mediterranean countries: The case of Greece, Italy and Spain

  • Canofari Paolo
  • Di Bartolomeo Giovanni
  • Piersanti Giovanni

This paper analyzes strategic interactions and contagion effects in countries joined to a monetary union. Using game theory and a cost-benefit analysis, the paper determines the set of equilibrium solutions under which country-specific shocks are transmitted to other member countries giving rise to contagion. Numerical simulations, obtained by a simple calibration of the model on some key Mediterranean countries of the Euro Zone, show the probabilities of contagion from Greece to Spain and Italy.

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File URL: http://wp.comunite.it/data/wp_no_98_2013.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Communication, University of Teramo in its series wp.comunite with number 0098.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:0098
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://wp.comunite.it/

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  1. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Chung, Tsz-Kin, 2011. "Crash risk of the euro in the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2010," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2945-2955, November.
  2. Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2011. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," European Economy - Economic Papers 436, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Heather D. Gibson & Stephan G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2011. "The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Working Papers 124, Bank of Greece.
  4. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2010. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: the impact of the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1152, European Central Bank.
  5. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2005. "Institutions, Arrangements, and Preferences for Inflation Stability: Evidence and Lessons from a Panel Data Analysis," Emory Economics 0501, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  6. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521794404 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "The Sustainability of Monetary Unions. Can the Euro Survive?," CEIS Research Paper 226, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 27 Mar 2012.
  8. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Joshua Aizenman & Michael M. Hutchison & Yothin Jinjarak, 2011. "What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 17407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2011. "Sovereign spreads in the Euro Area. Which prospects for a Eurobond?," Working Papers 424, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach," IREA Working Papers 201116, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2011.
  12. Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Piersanti Giovanni, 2012. "Strategic interactions and contagion effects under monetary unions," wp.comunite 0093, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  13. Wolfram Berger & Helmut Wagner, 2002. "Spreading Currency Crises; The Role of Economic Interdependence," IMF Working Papers 02/144, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Metiu, Norbert, 2012. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 35-38.
  15. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," NBER Working Papers 16899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, March.
  17. Bertrand Candelon & Amadou N. R. Sy & Rabah Arezki, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers; Evidence From the European Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/68, International Monetary Fund.
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