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On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

  • António Afonso,
  • Michael G. Arghyrou,
  • George Bagdatoglou,
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly time-varying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

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Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2013/05.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp052013
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
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  1. Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2011. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," European Economy - Economic Papers 436, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
  3. Acharya, Viral V & Drechsler, Itamar & Schnabl, Philipp, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Afonso, António, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-88, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  5. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Stability in the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(6), pages 866-880, November.
  6. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe, 2009. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the Euro area – in good times as in bad," Kiel Working Papers 1548, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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  10. Carlo Favero & Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2007. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Working Papers 323, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2003. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society.
  13. D'Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2012. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – the times, they are a-changin," MPRA Paper 40604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
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  17. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  18. Arghyrou, Michael G & Tsoukalas, John D., 2010. "The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  19. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  21. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
  22. Giovanni Caggiano & Luciano Greco, 2012. "Fiscal and Financial Determinants of Eurozone Sovereign Spreads," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0148, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
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  24. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
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