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Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?: Essays in Econometric Methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Hendry, David F.

    (Nuffield College, Oxford)

Abstract

"Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?" analyses the effectiveness and validity of applying econometric methods to economic time series. The methodological dispute is long-standing, and no claim can be made for a single valid method, but recent results on the theory and practice of model selection bid fair to resolve many of the contentious issues. The book presents criticisms and evaluations of competing approaches, based on theoretical economic and econometric analyses, empirical applications, and Monte Carlo simulations, which interact to determine best practice. It explains the evolution of an approach to econometric modelling founded in careful statistical analyses of the available data, using economic theory to guide the general model specification. From a strong foundation in the theory of reduction, via a range of applied and simulation studies, it demonstrates that general-to-specific procedures have excellent properties. The book is divided into four Parts: Routes and Route Maps; Empirical Modelling Strategies; Formalization; and Retrospect and Prospect. A short preamble to each chapter sketches the salient themes, links to earlier and later developments, and the lessons learnt or missed at the time. A sequence of detailed empirical studies of consumers' expenditure and money demand illustrate most facets of the approach. Material new to this revised edition describes recent major advances in computer-automated model selection, embodied in the powerful new software program PcGets, which establish the operational success of the modelling strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendry, David F., 2000. "Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?: Essays in Econometric Methodology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293545.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780198293545
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2016. "Political Leaders' Socioeconomic Background and Public Budget Deficits: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 55-78, March.
    2. Tobias Caris & Bernd Hayo, 2012. "Female Labour Force Participation in Arab Countries: The Role of Identity," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201241, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 363-371.
    4. Barigozzi, Matteo & Alessi, Lucia & Capasso, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2012. "The distribution of household consumption-expenditure budget shares," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 69-91.
    5. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "A biannual recession-forecasting model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-393.
    6. Bor, Jacob, 2007. "The political economy of AIDS leadership in developing countries: An exploratory analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(8), pages 1585-1599, April.
    7. Sheetal K. Chand, 2004. "Macroeconomics - Which Way Now? Old versus New Styles," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 11-26.
    8. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:1170096 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2005. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 571-595, October.
    10. Carmen Altenkirch, 2005. "The Determinants Of Sovereign Credit Ratings: A New Empirical Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(3), pages 462-473, September.
    11. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Does the currency board matter? US news and Argentine financial market reaction," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 4034-4040, October.
    12. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the Teaching of Econometrics," Economics Series Working Papers 785, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2015. "Regional effects of federal tax shocks," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 343-360, October.
    14. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    15. Mariola Pilatowska, 2008. "The Econometric Models Satisfying the Congruence Postulate – an Overview," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 8, pages 53-60.
    16. Hayo, Bernd & Neumeier, Florian, 2014. "Political leaders' socioeconomic background and fiscal performance in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 184-205.
    17. repec:bus:jphile:v:10:y:2016:i:1:n:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Matteo Barigozzi & Lucia Alessi & Marco Capasso & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2008. "The Distribution of Consumption-Expenditure Budget Shares. Evidence from Italian Households," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2008-09, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    19. Asad Zaman, 2010. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(1), pages 36-56, April.
    20. Hayo Bernd & Caris Tobias, 2013. "Female Labour Force Participation in the MENA Region: The Role of Identity," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 271-292, December.
    21. Ye, Haichun & Ashley, Richard & Guerard, John, 2015. "Comparing the effectiveness of traditional vs. mechanized identification methods in post-sample forecasting for a macroeconomic Granger causality analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 488-500.
    22. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    23. Huang, Wei & Bruemmer, Bernhard & Huntsinger, Lynn, 2016. "Incorporating measures of grassland productivity into efficiency estimates for livestock grazing on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-11.
    24. Stavros A. DRAKOPOULOS, 2016. "Economic crisis, economic methodology and the scientific ideal of physics," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 28-57, November.

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