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Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables

Author

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  • David F. Hendry

    () (Economcis Department, University of Oxford)

  • Carlos Santos

    () (Economics Department, University of Oxford)

Abstract

OLS estimation of an impulse-indicator coefficient is inconsistent, but its variance can be consistently estimated. Although the ratio of the inconsistent estimator to its standard error has a t-distribution, that test is inconsistent: one solution is to form an index of indicators. We provide Monte Carlo evidence that including a plethora of indicators need not distort model selection, permitting the use of many dummies in a general-to-specific framework. Although White's (1980) heteroskedasticity test is incorrectly sized in that context, we suggest an improvement. Finally, a possible modification to impulse intercept corrections is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0413
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    File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2004/w13/CSDFHindicators03a.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2003. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Outliers," Discussion Papers 03-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Hendry, David F., 2000. "Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?: Essays in Econometric Methodology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293545.
    3. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
    4. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, April.
    5. Salkever, David S., 1976. "The use of dummy variables to compute predictions, prediction errors, and confidence intervals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 393-397, November.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    7. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    8. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
    9. Messer, Karen & White, Halbert, 1984. "A Note on Computing the Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Using Instrumental Variable Techniques," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(2), pages 181-184, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Roman Matousek & Chris Stewart, 2011. "EU Banks Rating Assignments: Is There Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 189-206, February.
    2. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
    3. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 363-371.
    4. David F. Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, vol. 2(46), October.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Matousek, Roman & Stewart, Chris, 2012. "Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1593-1606.
    6. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2011. "Robust Growth Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series 3354, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 5-28, March.
    8. David E. Giles, 2017. "On the Inconsistency of Instrumental Variables Estimators for the Coefficients of Certain Dummy Variables," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 15-26, March.
    9. Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2010. "Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 25-36, September.
    10. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    11. Christian M. Hafner & Arie Preminger, 2016. "The effect of additive outliers on a fractional unit root test," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 100(4), pages 401-420, October.
    12. Søren Johansen & David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," CREATES Research Papers 2007-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    14. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Hecq A.W. & Jacobs J.P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis M., 2016. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    17. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
    18. SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    19. Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
    20. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Steve Cook, 2015. "Statistical model selection with “Big Data”," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1045216-104, December.
    21. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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