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Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2

  • David Hendry
  • Felix Pretis

We identify anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric CO2 measured at Mauna Loa using a statistical automatic model selection algorithm (Autometrics). We find that vegetation, temperature and other natural factors alone cannot explain the trend or the variation in CO2 growth. Industrial production components, driven by business cycles and economic shocks, are highly significant contributors.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 584.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:584
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  1. Gromping, Ulrike, 2007. "Estimators of Relative Importance in Linear Regression Based on Variance Decomposition," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 61, pages 139-147, May.
  2. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
  3. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2012. "Model Selection in Equations with Many 'Small' Effects," Working Paper Series 53_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  4. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-42.
  5. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
  6. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," Working Paper Series 10810, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  8. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  9. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
  10. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C32-C61, 03.
  11. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Jurgen A. Doornik, 2008. "Encompassing and Automatic Model Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 915-925, December.
  13. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
  14. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
  15. Christophe Bontemps & Grayham E. Mizon, 2008. "Encompassing: Concepts and Implementation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 721-750, December.
  16. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  18. Salkever, David S., 1976. "The use of dummy variables to compute predictions, prediction errors, and confidence intervals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 393-397, November.
  19. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  20. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  21. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2008. "An analysis of the indicator saturation estimator as a robust regression," Discussion Papers 08-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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