IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia

  • Gunnar Bardsen

    ()

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Stan Hurn

    ()

    (QUT)

  • Zoe McHugh

    (Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited)

The unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as an asymmetric and nonlinear function of aggregate demand, productivity, real interest rates, the replacement ratio and the real exchange rate. If changes in unemployment are big, the management of of demand, real interest rates and the replacement ratio will be good instruments to start bringing it down. The model is developed by exploiting recent developments in automated model-selection procedures.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WPNo71.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by National Centre for Econometric Research in its series NCER Working Paper Series with number 71.

as
in new window

Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 15 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2011_2
Contact details of provider: Phone: 07 3138 5066
Fax: 07 3138 1500
Web page: http://www.ncer.edu.au

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  2. Kurt Brännäs & Henry Ohlsson, 1999. "Asymmetric Time Series and Temporal Aggregation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 341-344, May.
  3. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Department of Economics 97-27, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  4. Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, December.
  6. Randall E. Parker & Philip Rothman, . "The Current Depth of Recession and Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Working Papers 9729, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  7. Jeremy Greenwood & Glenn M. MacDonald & Guang-Jia Zhang, 1994. "The cyclical behavior of job creation and job destruction: a sectoral model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 88, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. David Andolfatto, 1997. "Evidence and Theory on the Cyclical Asymmetry in Unemployment Rate Fluctuations," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 709-21, August.
  9. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  10. Ho-Chuan (River) Huang & Ya-Kai Chang, 2005. "INVESTIGATING OKUN's LAW BY THE STRUCTURAL BREAK WITH THRESHOLD APPROACH: EVIDENCE FROM CANADA," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(5), pages 599-611, 09.
  11. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1303-23, November.
  12. Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
  13. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 05 Oct 1998.
  14. Jeff Borland, 1997. "Unemployment in Australia-Prospects and Policies: An Overview," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(4), pages 391-404.
  15. Tom Valentine, 1993. "The Sources Of Unemployment: A Simple Econometric Analysis," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, December.
  16. Bodman, Philip M, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
  17. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, December.
  18. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
  19. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1987. "Work, Rest, and Search: Unemployment, Turnover, and the Cycle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(2), pages 131-48, April.
  20. Peat, Maurice & Stevenson, Max, 1996. "Asymmetry in the business cycle: Evidence from the Australian labour market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 353-368, September.
  21. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  22. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Australian Unemployment," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
  23. Goodridge, Stephen & Harding, Don & Lloyd, Peter, 1995. "The Long Term Growth In Unemployment," MPRA Paper 3706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. A.T. Le & P.W. Miller, 2000. "Australia's Unemployment Problem," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  25. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-90, September.
  26. Tom Valentine, 1993. "The Sources of Unemployment: A Simple Econometric Analysis," Working Paper Series 32, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  27. Pitchford, J D, 1983. "Unemployment, Real Wages and the Money Supply in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(165), pages 118-31, June.
  28. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
  29. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February.
  30. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  31. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1991. "Real Wages and Unemployment in Australia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 35-55, February.
  32. Huay, Ooi Soon & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 1992. "The Causes of Unemployment in Australia, 1966-1987," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(58), pages 77-93, June.
  33. Trivedi, P K & Baker, G M, 1985. "Equilibrium Unemployment in Australia: Concepts and Measurement," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(174), pages 629-43, September.
  34. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 1998. "Dynamic asymmetries in US unemployment," ESE Discussion Papers 15, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  35. Isabel Casas & Irene Gijbels, 2009. "Unstable volatility functions: the break preserving local linear estimator," CREATES Research Papers 2009-48, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  36. Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Forecasting the US unemployment rate," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 451-476, March.
  37. Akram, Q. Farooq & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2006. "Econometric modelling of slack and tight labour markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 579-596, July.
  38. Akram,Q.F. & Nymoen,R., 2001. "Employment behaviour in slack and tight labour markets," Memorandum 27/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  39. Bob Gregory, 2000. "A Longer Run Perspective on Australian Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 425, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  40. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.
  41. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  42. Akram, Qaisar Farooq, 2005. "Multiple unemployment equilibria and asymmetric dynamics--Norwegian evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 263-283, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2011_2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (School of Economics and Finance)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.