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Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Gunnar Bardsen

    () (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Stan Hurn

    () (QUT)

  • Zoe McHugh

    (Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited)

Abstract

The unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as an asymmetric and nonlinear function of aggregate demand, productivity, real interest rates, the replacement ratio and the real exchange rate. If changes in unemployment are big, the management of of demand, real interest rates and the replacement ratio will be good instruments to start bringing it down. The model is developed by exploiting recent developments in automated model-selection procedures.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunnar Bardsen & Stan Hurn & Zoe McHugh, 2011. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," NCER Working Paper Series 71, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2011_2
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    File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WPNo71.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    2. David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Anthropogenic influences on atmospheric CO2," Chapters,in: Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 12, pages 287-326 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2011. "The Australian Phillips curve and more," Papers 1102.1851, arXiv.org.
    4. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployement; non-linearity; dynamic modelling; aggregate demand; real wages;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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