IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview

We consider the reasons for nowcasting, how nowcasts can be achieved, and the use and timing of information.� The existence of contemporaneous data such as surveys is a major difference from forecasting, but many of the recent lessons about forecasting remain relevant.� Given the extensive disaggregation over variables underlying flash estimates of aggregates, we show that automatic model selection can play a valuable role, especially when location shifts would otherwise induce nowcast failure.� Thus, we address nowcasting when location shifts occur, probably with measurement error.� We describe impulse-indicator saturation as a potential solution to such shifts, noting its relation to intercept corrections and to robust methods to avoid systematic nowcast failure.� We propose a nowcasting strategy, building models of all disaggregate series by automatic methods, forecasting all variables before the end of each period, testing for shifts as available measures arrive, and adjusting forecasts of cognate missing series if substantive discrepancies are found.� An alternative is switching to robust forecasts when breaks are detected.� We apply a variant of this strategy to nowcast UK GDP growth, seeking pseudo real-time data availability.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/papers/13019/paper674.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 674.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 27 Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:674
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ray Barrell & Karen Dury & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain & Dirk te Velde, 1998. "Financial market contagion and the effects of the crises in East Asia, Russia and Latin America," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 166(1), pages 57-73, October.
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
  3. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
  4. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators," CSEF Working Papers 240, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  6. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2007. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 631, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2008. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08082, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Nov 2009.
  8. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Working Paper Series 0700, European Central Bank.
  9. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Factor-GMM Estimation with Large Sets of Possibly Weak Instruments," CEPR Discussion Papers 7726, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 0622, European Central Bank.
  11. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
  12. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
  13. Corradi, Valentina & Fernandez, Andres & Swanson, Norman R., 2009. "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 455-467.
  14. Gunnar Bardsen & Stan Hurn & Zoe McHugh, 2011. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," NCER Working Paper Series 71, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  15. Antonello D’ Agostino & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 306-326, 04.
  16. Jennifer L. Castle & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett & David F. Hendry, 2009. "Nowcasting Is Not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 71-89, October.
  17. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
  18. Engle, R. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing Super Exogeneity And Invariance In Regression Models," Economics Series Working Papers 99100, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  19. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
  20. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
  21. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
  22. Forni, Mario, et al, 2001. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C62-85, May.
  23. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  25. Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2010. "Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 25-36, September.
  26. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "An Historical Perspective on Forecast Errors," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 177(1), pages 100-112, July.
  27. Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jérôme & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "Interpolation and backdating with a large information set," Working Paper Series 0252, European Central Bank.
  28. Karim Barhoumi & Szilard Benk & Riccardo Cristadoro & Ard Den Reijer & Audrone Jakaitiene & Piotr Jelonek & António Rua & Gerhard Rünstler & Karsten Ruth & Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets - a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Occasional Paper Series 84, European Central Bank.
  29. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
  30. Catherine Doz & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print hal-00844811, HAL.
  31. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00460461 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Jurgen A. Doornik, 2008. "Encompassing and Automatic Model Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 915-925, December.
  33. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, March.
  34. Ard H.J. den Reijer, 2005. "Forecasting Dutch GDP using Large Scale Factor Models," DNB Working Papers 028, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  35. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
  36. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
  37. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
  38. Forni M. & Hallin M., 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 143, Society for Computational Economics.
  39. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
  40. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F108-F129, 02.
  41. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  42. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  43. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
  44. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, 08.
  45. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2011. "Nowcasting Irish GDP," MPRA Paper 32941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
  47. repec:sae:niesru:v:166:y::i:1:p:57-73 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  49. Christian Schumacher, 2007. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 271-302.
  50. Israel Sancho & maximo Camacho, 2002. "Spanish diffusion indexes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 276, Society for Computational Economics.
  51. Christophe Bontemps & Grayham E. Mizon, 2008. "Encompassing: Concepts and Implementation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 721-750, December.
  52. repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  54. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Economics Papers 2003-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  55. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
  56. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  57. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Discussion Papers 11-01, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  58. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  59. Ricard Gil & Steven D. Levitt, 2007. "Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(3), pages 255-270, December.
  60. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors' Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:674. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Caroline Wise)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.