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Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Domenico Giannone

    (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR)

  • Lucrezia Reichlin

    (London Business School and CEPR)

  • Saverio Simonelli

    (Università di Napoli Federico II, EUI and CSEF)

Abstract

This paper assesses the role of surveys for the early estimates of GDP in the euro area in a model-based automated procedures which exploits the timeliness of their release. The analysis is conducted using both an historical evaluation and a real time case study on the current conjuncture.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators," CSEF Working Papers 240, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:240
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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