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Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity In Real Time: The Role Of Confidence Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Domenico Giannone

    (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR)

  • Lucrezia Reichlin

    (London Business School and CEPR)

  • Saverio Simonelli

    (University of Naples Federico II, EUI and CSEF, saverio.simonelli@unina.it)

Abstract

This paper assesses the role of qualitative surveys for the early estimation of GDP in the Euro Area in a model-based automated procedure which exploits the timeliness of their release. The analysis is conducted using both an historical evaluation and a real-time case study on the current conjuncture.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity In Real Time: The Role Of Confidence Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 90-97, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:210:y:2009:i:1:p:90-97
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    2. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
    3. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
    4. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
    5. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 25-44, February.
    6. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
    8. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    9. Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank.
    10. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages 108-129, February.
    11. Rünstler, Gerhard & Sédillot, Franck, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Advances in Econometrics,in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 569-594 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    3. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    5. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    6. Götz Thomas B. & Hecq Alain & Urbain Jean-Pierre, 2012. "Real-Time Forecast Density Combinations (Forecasting US GDP Growth Using Mixed-Frequency Data)," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    8. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    10. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    11. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:14:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0022-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    13. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Nowcasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 7883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    15. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    16. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Fotis Papailias, 2014. "“Out of Sync”: The Breakdown of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the EU," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 131-150, February.
    17. repec:spr:series:v:9:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s13209-017-0170-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:301-312 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:160-168 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Keeney, Mary & Kennedy, Bernard & Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "The value of hard and soft data for short-term forecasting of GDP," Economic Letters 11/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; factor model; real-time data; large data sets; survey;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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