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Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting

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  • Karen Croxson
  • J. James Reade

Abstract

In an efficient market news is incorporated into prices rapidly and completely. Attempts to test for this in financial markets have been undermined by the possibility of information leakage unobserved by the econometrician. An alternative is to switch to laboratory conditions, at the price of some artificiality. Potentially, sports betting markets offer a superior way forward: assets have terminal values and news can break remarkably cleanly, as when a goal is scored in soccer. We exploit this context to test for efficiency, applying a novel identification strategy to high-frequency data. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.
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Suggested Citation

  • Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:124:y:2014:i:575:p:62-91
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecoj.2014.124.issue-575
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Exchange vs Dealers: A High-Frequency Analysis of In-Play Betting Prices," Discussion Papers 11-19, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & David-Jan Jansen, 2016. "It Hurts (Stock Prices) When Your Team is about to Lose a Soccer Match," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1215-1233.
    3. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. " Liquidity, Market Efficiency and the Influence of Noise Traders: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 341, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    4. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2009. "Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 09-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Bizzozero, Paolo & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2016. "The importance of suspense and surprise in entertainment demand: Evidence from Wimbledon," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 47-63.
    6. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
    7. Alasdair Brown, 2013. "Information Acquisition in Ostensibly Efficient Markets," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 043, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    8. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2016-01, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    9. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nuesch, 2009. "Inter- market Arbitrage in Sports Betting," NCER Working Paper Series 48, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    10. Leighton Vaughan Williams & J. James Reade, 2016. "Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 518-556, August.
    11. Leighton Vaughan Williams & James Reade, 2014. "Prediction Markets, Twitter and Bigotgate," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2014-09, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    12. Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
    13. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Ine!ciencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Working Papers 2016-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    14. John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), 2014. "Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14821, April.
    15. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2013. "Inter-market Arbitrage in Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(318), pages 300-325, April.
    16. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Vitor Miguel Ribeiro, 2014. "Anticipating the long-term ideology of a policymaker," FEP Working Papers 553, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. Paolo Bizzozero & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2017. " Insider trading and price efficiency: Evidence from a betting exchange," Working Papers 368, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    19. repec:wsi:qjfxxx:v:02:y:2012:i:03:n:s2010139212500139 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek, 2009. "The Validity of Models on the Information Content of Trades," Working Papers 00120, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2010.
    21. James Reade, 2014. "Detecting corruption in football," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 25, pages 419-446 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2015. "Adverse Selection, Speed Bumps and Asset Market Quality," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 070, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    23. Hofer, Vera & Leitner, Johannes, 2017. "Relative pricing of binary options in live soccer betting markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 66-85.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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