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Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting

Author

Listed:
  • Karen Croxson
  • J. James Reade

Abstract

In an efficient market news is incorporated into prices rapidly and completely. Attempts to test for this in financial markets have been undermined by the possibility of information leakage unobserved by the econometrician. An alternative is to switch to laboratory conditions, at the price of some artificiality. Potentially, sports betting markets offer a superior way forward: assets have terminal values and news can break remarkably cleanly, as when a goal is scored in soccer. We exploit this context to test for efficiency, applying a novel identification strategy to high-frequency data. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.
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Suggested Citation

  • Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:124:y:2014:i:575:p:62-91
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecoj.2014.124.issue-575
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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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