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Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available

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  • Nilss Olekalns
  • Kalvinder Shields

Abstract

A canonical model is described which reflects the real time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not available at the time. It is argued that conventional models are misspecified and misinterpret news. However, neither diagnostic tests applied to the conventional models nor typical impulse response analysis will be able to expose these deficiencies clearly. This is demonstrated through an analysis of quarterly US data 1968q4-2006q1. However, estimated real time models considerably improve out-of-sample forecasting performance, provide more accurate ‘nowcasts’ of the current state of the macroeconomy and provide more timely indicators of the business cycle. The point is illustrated through an analysis of the US recessions of 1990q3—1991q2 and 2001q1—2001q4

Suggested Citation

  • Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
    2. Kirdan Lees, 2009. "Overview of a recent Reserve Bank workshop: nowcasting with model combination," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 31-33, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Modelling; Real Time Data; Nowcasting; Business Cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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