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Formation of Price and Cost Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis

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  • Lee, Kevin C

Abstract

The process by which agents form expectations on price and cost inflation is investigated. Measures of expectations of these series, derived from qualitative survey responses in nine industrial sectors covering U.K. manufacturing between 1972 and 1989, are described, and the rationality of these expectations tested. Rationality is not rejected in many sectors and the evidence against rationality much weakened in other sectors, if tests take into account a particular form of conversion error. The possible effect of aggregation bias in the tests is noted, as rationality is rejected with more confidence with aggregated data than when the sectoral data is considered individually. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Lee, Kevin C, 1994. "Formation of Price and Cost Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 372-385, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:104:y:1994:i:423:p:372-85
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    Cited by:

    1. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
    2. Kevin Lee & Michael Mahony & Paul Mizen, 2020. "The CBI Suite of Business Surveys," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2005. "The illusion of over-optimism in survey data: the case of manufacturers' selling prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 151-159, March.
    4. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    6. Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2007. "Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the Use of Survey Data on Expectations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(262), pages 303-316, September.
    7. Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucía Rosich, 2019. "Common trends in producers’ expectations, the nonlinear linkage with Uruguayan GDP and its implications in economic growth forecasting," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-28, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    8. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    9. Ray Barrell, 1999. "Employment Security and European Labour Demand: A Panel Study Across 16 Industries," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 148, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    10. Tobias F. Rötheli, 1999. "Selling prices and profits: what survey data tell about firms' rationality," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 319-325.
    11. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
    12. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy In Europe," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 122-132, April.
    13. Juan G Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucia I Rosich, 2021. "On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1970-1982.
    14. Mitchell, James, 2002. "The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data on expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 101-107, June.
    15. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    16. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," AQR Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2018.
    17. Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 95-114, May.
    19. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
    20. Christos Ioannidis & Mick Silver, 2001. "The influence of inflation on differential price changes across European markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 31-47, March.
    21. O Claveria & E Pons & J Surinach, 2006. "Quantification of Expectations. Are They Useful for Forecasting Inflation?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(2), pages 19-38, September.
    22. Hasan Bakhshi & Anthony Yates, 1998. "Are UK inflation expectations rational?," Bank of England working papers 81, Bank of England.
    23. Olivier Biau & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Nicolas Ferrari, 2006. "Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de conjoncture et prévision de la production manufacturière," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 395(1), pages 91-116.

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