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The anchoring of European inflation expectations

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  • Jan Marc Berk
  • Gerbert Hebbink

Abstract

This paper analyses the usefulness of direct measures of consumers' perceptions and expectations of inflation for monetary policy and investigates the degree to which these variables are anchored. We inter alia seek to xplore whether there is a difference in reaction of consumers in countries with more credible central banks and those from countries with less credible central banks. We moreover investigate whether the introduction of euro coins and banknotes in 2002, that can be interpreted as a structural shock, has significantly affected the inflation rate as perceived by consumers. We find that European inflation expectations are relatively robust to sudden changes in inflation or monetary policy surprises, regardless of the credibility of the central bank. The introduction of the euro, however, significantly affected the inflation perception of European consumers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:116
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    File URL: https://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20Paper%20116-2006_tcm46-146773.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Petros M. Migiakis, 2016. "Inflation persistence, learning dynamics and the rationality of inflation expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 963-979.
    2. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2008. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 325-346.
    3. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Petros M. Migiakis, 2016. "Inflation persistence, learning dynamics and the rationality of inflation expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 963-979.
    4. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2016. "Internal or external devaluation? What does the EC Consumer Survey tell us about macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 88-103.
    5. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Monetary policy; Survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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